Nebius Stock Forecast: How Did NBIS Secure $44B in Contracts and What's Next?

TradingKey - On June 5, Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) stands at $253.51, drifting downward toward the rising black trendline on the 1H timeframe after touching a peak of $280.69. The RSI sits within a neutral 49 to 51 range with no divergence and volume has declined during the decline, which are hallmarks of a healthy retracement, not a reversal. At this phase of development, Nebius’s fundamentals are remarkable: Q1 2026 revenue was $399 million, 684% higher than last year; adjusted EBITDA reached $129.5 million, beating forecasts with profit; it has inked multi-year deals with Microsoft worth as much as $17 to 19 billion and Meta for as much as $27 billion; the enterprise sits on $9.3 billion cash; and is preparing to connect over 1 GW of power by year-end 2026. The $247.95 to $253 trendline is the trade’s inflection.

What Nebius Is and Why 684% Revenue Growth Is Only the Beginning

A spinoff from Russia’s largest tech firm, Yandex, Nebius Group emerged as a public company specializing in AI data centers and cloud computing following restructuring. The company is a neocloud firm, an operator of GPU-centric data centers and an AI cloud infrastructure that distributes processing to customers (corporations, universities, hyperscalers) seeking AI compute training and inference at scale. Neocloud business makes up 98% of total sales, so nearly the entire 684% growth in Q1 YoY has come from a single, highly specific and sought-after offering.

Q1 2026’s $399 million run-rate is interesting neither in and of itself, nor the fact that 12 to 24 months from now it is not likely $1.6 billion annualized. In 2027, a firm on the heels of 684% YoY growth at $1.6 billion annualized, with peak utilization and a back-log (via multi-year agreements) from Microsoft and Meta of up to $44 billion, is not on the tail end of growth and at peak utilization. That $129.5 million Q1 adjusted EBITDA profit tells us the unit economics work, i.e. it’s profitable to bring on a new Nebius compute unit.

The Microsoft and Meta Contracts — Why $44 Billion in Potential Commitments Changes the Valuation Framework

The recent deal disclosures alter Nebius Group’s valuation model. Microsoft has agreed to provide up to $17 to 19 billion in commitments to date, and Meta has committed to up to $27 billion. That is 2+ customers with up to $44 to 46 billion in potential contracts versus Nebius Group’s market cap of a fraction of that number. We aren’t talking about MOUs or letters of intent, but multi-year supply agreements, the kind of commitment we’ve seen re-rate firms like SanDisk or Marvell.

The $9.3 billion in cash proceeds (via convertible note and warrant financing) enables Nebius Group to build the required infrastructure to service these demands. The land and power it has locked down in Pennsylvania for its AI data center, as well as a 2026 goal of greater than 1 GW of connected power capacity total, represent the physical resources to turn those $44 billion in potential commitments into booked revenue.

There is clearly execution risk, in that there’s no guarantee Nebius Group can construct GW-scale data centers on this schedule and secure both the needed GPUs and power distribution. But there is capital, there is land secured, and there are contracts signed. The only bottleneck is execution; demand is plentiful.

NBIS Technical Setup — Ascending Trendline at $247–$253, Targets $280 and $294

Price is at $253.51 for Nebius Group, falling toward the multi-touch ascending black trend line from a $280.69 recent high on 1H, with long lower wicks keeping buyers defending the trendline as selling dries up. Demand is apparent at the dynamic support level. The RSI is at 49 to 51, neutral, no divergence. Volume has tailed off in the retracement, which is normal for profit taking, rather than distribution. Resistance is at $263.81 to $280.69 overhead. Blue support trail’s deeper floor is $247.95. A bounce should see the channel extended toward $280 to $294.

Trade Plan:

• Entry: Go long at $263.80+ above resistance line in red.
• Target 1: $280.70, above $280.70 at previous high, at top of channel.
• Target 2: $294, above $294 at channel extension.
• Support: $247.95, below $247.95, at deeper floor on blue support trail.
• Stop Loss: Below $247.95 at close on daily chart, which breaks channel structure.

Nebius Group Is What Company? It Had 684% Revenue Growth

Nebius Group is a neocloud AI infrastructure company that provides GPU-accelerated data center and AI cloud services for AI training and inference workloads. It was spun out of Yandex through a restructuring to become an independent public company.

In Q1 2026, Nebius generated $399 million in revenue, which included a 684% revenue growth as the utilization rate approached the capacity cap. With the revenue growth primarily driven by its AI cloud services that accounts for 98% of the overall top line, Nebius also posted an adjusted EBITDA profit of $129.5 million in the current quarter ahead of time. The company’s unit economics indicate that it has a good business model.

What Are the Contract Values With Microsoft and Meta?

Nebius has secured multi-year supply agreements with Microsoft representing up to $17 to $19 billion in potential revenue commitments, while its deal with Meta carries potential revenues of $27 billion. Total contracted revenue from just these two clients of $44 billion to $46 billion exceeds the company’s total market value many times over.

Nebius currently maintains a cash balance of $9.3 billion, raised through convertible note and warrant issuance, to finance infrastructure necessary to service these contracts. Construction on its 1.2 GW AI data center complex in Pennsylvania continues, and it’s aiming for 1 GW+ of connected power capacity by 2026.

Is Nebius Stock Buyable at $253 After Pulling Back to From $280 Highs?

From a technical perspective, the pattern looks good. The stock is now retracing toward the rising black trendline, with significant long wicks supporting the level at the bottom, RSI in neutral territory around 50 and volume tapering off. Long over $263.80 will target $280.70 and $294, stop below $247.95.

Fundamentally, 684% revenue growth, EBITDA positive ahead of schedule, $44 billion in potential contracted revenue from Microsoft and Meta, and $9.3 billion in cash all provide the bullish thesis with impressive forward visibility. Delivering the 1 GW connected capacity goal with such a tight timeline may be the main execution risk for the near term.

Bottom Line

Nebius Group now has $44 billion of contracted revenue from Microsoft and Meta, $9.3 billion in cash to construct the infrastructure to meet this demand, 684% revenue growth in the first quarter, and EBITDA profitability arriving sooner than anticipated. The real risk is in execution, as building gigawatt-scale data centers is no small endeavor. But demand has been contracted, the cap is in place and land has been obtained for development.

Traders at $253.51, NBIS is moving toward the upward trend with flat RSI and volume in the normal range. A long above $263.80 looks toward $280.70 and $294. The stop is at $247.95. This is a fast growing, volatile stock with the most revenue visibility from contracts of any AI infrastructure firm we’ve covered here.