SpaceX Finally Made It's S-1 Public. 3 Things Smart Investors Need to Know About the IPO
Key Points
SpaceX is poised to have the biggest IPO in history.
The business has huge growth opportunities, but it's still posting big losses.
AI services represent a huge portion of SpaceX's estimated total addressable market.
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SpaceX is on the verge of the biggest initial public offering (IPO) in history and has recently filed its S-1 prospectus statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The filing has given investors the first in-depth look at the company's financials.
With SpaceX reportedly gearing up to sell its first public shares at a pricing range that will value the company at a market capitalization between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion, the company almost certainly seems poised to have the biggest public debut ever. SpaceX's hotly anticipated June IPO is on track to make history, and there's a lot for investors to parse over before what looks to be a record-setting debut.
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SpaceX has a highly growth-dependent valuation
According to the company's S-1 filing, SpaceX recorded sales of $18.67 billion last year. That figure counts contributions from the xAI business, which includes Grok, other artificial intelligence (AI) services, and the X social media platform. Meanwhile, the company recorded a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025.
Losses could be looking even more stark this year. In 2026's first quarter, SpaceX recorded a loss of $4.27 billion on sales of $4.69 billion.
For a highly growth-oriented business, SpaceX's losses aren't necessarily a disqualifying indicator. The company has a forefront position in both rocket-launching services and satellite-based internet communication services, and each of these markets has the potential to see massive growth over the long term. SpaceX has plenty of promising growth shoots and could go on to be a massive winner, but the business also still has a lot of proving to do when it comes to justifying a low-end valuation of $1.75 trillion.
Elon Musk has a commanding stake of shares and big performance incentives
With its prospectus filing, SpaceX gave investors their first look at the holdings breakdown among insiders and institutional investors. Notably, CEO Elon Musk holds shares working out to roughly 85.1% of total voting power at SpaceX.
Musk has proven himself to be a visionary tech leader, and his leadership history at Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has helped the electric vehicle company command a valuation premium and paved the way for him to command massive compensation packages at the business. The CEO also has a massive performance package in place with SpaceX.
Musk is set to be awarded 1 billion shares if the company establishes a permanent human colony on Mars with at least one million inhabitants. While this looks like a pie-in-the-sky performance incentive, Musk undeniably has a lot skin in the game when it comes to SpaceX's performance.
Starlink is the biggest sales driver, but SpaceX is betting big on other projects
With sales of roughly $3.26 billion in the business's last quarter, Starlink accounted for 69% of the company's total sales. Starlink counted approximately 10.3 million subscribers at the end of the period, but management sees a total addressable market that expands far beyond the satellite-internet market.
SpaceX estimates its total addressable market (TAM) at roughly $28.5 trillion. Coming in at $22.7 trillion, AI enterprise applications represent by far the largest share of its TAM cohort. AI infrastructures represent the second largest share of the TAM pie, coming in at $2.4 trillion. Meanwhile, Starlink Broadband is estimated at $870 billion, AI consumer subscriptions are estimated at a potential $760 billion, and Starlink Mobile is estimated at $740 billion. The AI digital advertising market is estimated at a value of $600 billion, and space-enabled solutions are projected at a $370 billion market opportunity.
SpaceX's TAM estimates and growth targets look very ambitious. The company is undeniably at the forefront of some revolutionary tech categories, but it will have a lot of proving to do when it finally has its IPO.
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Keith Noonan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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