Nvidia Reports Q1 FY2027 Earnings on May 20 - Is NVDA a Buy at $224 Before the Most Important Print of the Year?

TradingKey - Nvidia Q1 FY2027 earnings May 20. Consensus: $78B revenue, $65B+ data centre, 74%+ margins. BofA target $320. NVDA at $224 at Fib 0.382 support. Breakout targets $231–$237.

Nvidia (NVDA) will announce fiscal 1Q 2027 results after the market closes on May 20, 2026, marking the biggest earnings event of the AI infrastructure cycle this year. The Street is anticipating about $78 billion in revenue, a 77% year-over-year increase and a fourth-straight record quarter, with data center revenue surpassing $65 billion and non-GAAP gross margins above 74%. Bank of America has a $320 price target. With Nvidia down to $224.43 to touch the 0.382 Fibonacci level near $221.45 at the base of a tall rising channel, the RSI has cooled off from overbought to build up positive divergence. The pre-earnings setup is favorable, but the binary outcome is the most consequential trade in all of markets so far this year.

Here’s what Wall Street expects out of Nvidia on May 20

The consensus for Nvidia fiscal 1Q 2027 is high. A $78 billion top line would be an all-time quarterly best and a 77% year-over-year increase. Data center revenue above $65 billion would be supported by Blackwell GPU shipments to customers including Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon and Oracle, as well as sovereign AI rollouts throughout Asia, the Middle East and Europe. Non-GAAP gross margin above 74% would verify that the ramp-up in Blackell production is not resulting in the margin contraction that several bears are forecasting. Non-GAAP EPS should be a decisive beat, too, against the already lofty consensus.

The two most consequential pieces of data on the call will not be the results, it will be 2Q 2027 guidance plus comment on the availability of Blackwell and Rubin products going forward, specifically any update on 2H 2026 and 2027 supply. If management reiterates that Blackwell production has been fully committed through 2027 or that the sovereign AI boom is accelerating relative to what the company expected in early Q1, NVDA should surge 10% to 15% higher intraday, consistent with the post-earnings rally that Nvidia has experienced over time. Any 2Q supply caution would trigger the inverse reaction for the entire AI infrastructure complex.

How a growth-friendly Warsh Fed will impact Nvidia’s valuation and the hyperscaler cycle

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s dovish posture creates a favorable tailwind for Nvidia in two ways. Lower rates lower the discount rate Nvidia applies to its long-duration earnings stream, thereby improving the present value of its future cash flows and supporting higher valuation multiples. Secondly, and more immediately, rate cuts also reduce the cost of funding for hyperscalers Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Google as capital gets cheaper for these firms which spend on AI infrastructure via a combination of operating cash flow and new debt issuance. The cheaper the cost of capital to hyperscalers, the faster they can deploy capital, meaning Nvidia’s GPUs get ordered up at an accelerating pace. Nvidia is still sensitive to data, as seen in the hot April CPI print this week, so Warsh’s first rate cut isn’t guaranteed this quarter, but the market has certainly pricing some easing benefit into growth stocks.

Nvidia (NVDA) technicals, $221 (Fib 0.382) as support ahead of May 20 earnings

Nvidia has retreated from its channel topside near $237.91 to probe the 0.382 Fibonacci number at $221.45 while bouncing off its ascending channel midline. The dynamic support of a moving average sits between $216 and $220. Relative strength index has fallen from overbought levels to near its midrange at between 53 and 68 while forming positive divergence off of the latest dip. This pattern is a consolidation flag following the impulsive advance from the $194.83 base. 

Nvidia (NVDA) Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

Resistance sits near $227.74, $231.50 and then again topside at $237.91. A strong quarterly report followed by raised guidance on May 20 likely clears the upper channel resistance and opens up a move to a measured upside projection near $250 to $270. Nvidia would likely test $200 to $195 if the quarter is missed or the guidance tone is softer than expected.

TRADE SETUP

• Pre-earnings longs above $226, Fibonacci 0.382 support level, flag breakout
• Targets 1 and 2: $231.50 mid-line resistance; $237.91 topside resistance
• Post-earnings longs: $250 to $270 on a big beat and raised guidance
• Stops: Daily close under $220.40, channel support is invalid

When does Nvidia report Q1 FY2027 earnings?

Nvidia's FY2027 Q1 earnings will be released after market close on Tuesday, May 20, 2026. Consensus estimates for Nvidia's fiscal 2027 first quarter include $78 billion in revenue (77% y/y), more than $65 billion in Data Center, non-GAAP margins in excess of 74% and an EPS beat. 

Most of the market attention will focus on Q2 guidance and what guidance exists for Blackwell and Rubin platform supply availability through 2026 and 2027. Bank of America has a $320 price target for the stock.

What are the key things to watch in Nvidia’s earnings call?

During the Nvidia call, Q1 revenue and EPS are less relevant than two key data points: Q2 revenue guidance and Nvidia's Blackwell GPU supply and demand situation. If Nvidia tells us that Blackwell is fully sold out through 2027, that sovereign AI demand is gaining steam and the Rubin platform launch is being advanced, NVDA stock will likely rally. 

A cautious tone on H2 hyperscalers and margin guidance below 74% will lead to an AI infrastructure selloff considering the high expectations priced in.

Is NVDA a buy before May 20 earnings? 

From a technical perspective, NVDA is a buy pre-earnings. NVDA is bouncing off of the 0.382 fib level at $221.45 with RSI cooling from overbought territory and the indicator exhibiting bullish divergence from the steep, higher lows in the channel. A long NVDA trade above $226 has the $231.50 and $237.91 levels in the cards, while a stop should be placed below the $220.40 support level. 

Fundamentals for Nvidia remain robust, with revenue growth of 77% and non-GAAP margins above 74%. There is a strong potential for a 10-15% NVDA price increase following an earnings beat and raise, but Nvidia and the entire AI infrastructure stack will be compressed by a lower earnings and guidance. Position sizing before earnings is key, as much as direction.

Bottom Line

Nvidia's May 20th report is a top-tier earnings release for the entire AI infrastructure theme and is the most important to watch in the year. Analysts expect $78 billion in revenue, $65 billion+ in Data Center revenue and 74%+ margins to be reported. The Warsh Fed's growth-friendly narrative adds a positive fundamental backdrop to the report.

At $224, NVDA is near 0.382 fib support in front of a well-defined bull flag setup. A trade entry above $226 targets $231.50 and $237.91 pre-earnings, while a bullish post-earnings price swing to the $250 to $270 region is on the table for Nvidia on a strong beat and raise. Nvidia's tech peers, RXT, INOD, AMD, Cisco, Intel and the like, are set to move with NVDA on May 20. Make sure that you're aware of the binary scenario and that you size accordingly.