New Zealand: RBNZ brings forward easing cycle – UOB Group
Source Fxstreet
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to reduce the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 bps to 5.25%, embarking on an easing cycle much sooner than expected, almost a year ahead of the RBNZ’s own projections, UOB Group
RBNZ to continue steadily cutting the OCR
“The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lowered its official cash rate (OCR) by 25 bps to 5.25% earlier today (14 Aug). The move came as a surprise as it embarked on an easing cycle much sooner than expected.”
“The RBNZ’s updated forecasts show the average OCR at 4.62% early next year and at 3.85% by the end of 2025. Growth forecasts have been revised down significantly, incorporating negative growth in both 2Q24 and 3Q24. The RBNZ now sees inflation dropping to 2.3% in the current quarter but will not return to the 2% midpoint until mid-2026.”
“Given how a faster-than-expected contraction in the economy has shifted the balance of risks, we now expect the RBNZ to continue steadily cutting the OCR by 25 bps in every meeting for the rest of this year to bring the OCR to 4.75% by year end.”
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Recommended Articles
Prioritize filling the $27,000 gap and even try higher.
Insights – On November 21, Chinese e-commerce giant Pinduoduo (PDD) will release its Q3 2024 earnings.
Billionaire Elon Musk recently raised funds for his two high-profile tech companies, xAI and Neuralink.
Bitcoin briefly loses 2025 gains as crypto plunges over the weekend.Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in negative territory around $4,705 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal edges lower amid a temporary two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran.
