Bank of Canada: Policy rate seen on hold – Rabobank

Rabobank strategists Christian Lawrence and Molly Schwartz expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep its overnight policy rate at 2.25% on October 28, despite OIS markets pricing an 85% chance of a hike. They highlight mixed labour-market data, inflation concentrated in shelter and energy, and survey evidence of lingering demand risks. Their Canada rates forecast keeps the BoC at 2.25% through 12 months.

BoC hike odds diverge from Rabobank

"We expect the Bank of Canada to hold the overnight policy rate at 2.25% on October 28, despite the OIS pricing leaning in favor of a hike."

"Our case for a hold is not that a hike would necessarily worsen inflation readings, but that now is not the most effective time."

"We are forecasting a hold at 2.25% through year end, with the risk to our view skewed in favor of a hike at the upcoming meeting."

"Macklem’s speech at the IIF Forum in Bangkok a few weeks ago also supported the OIS repricing."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)