Canada: Inflation seen firming with energy support – TD Securities
Source Fxstreet
TD Securities strategists expect Canada’s May Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise, with headline inflation projected at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month, driven by higher energy prices and seasonal factors. Core goods and travel-related components are seen providing additional support, while CPI-trim and CPI-median are forecast to hold steady, keeping core inflation broadly aligned with Bank of Canada projections.
Headline and core inflation expectations
"We look for headline CPI to firm by 0.3pp to 3.1% y/y in May as prices rise 0.8% m/m (market: 3.0%, 0.7%), fueled by another large increase for energy products and seasonal tailwinds."
"Core goods should see a modest acceleration from April, while a partial rebound in travel-related components provides another driver for the headline print."
"Core inflation measures should stabilize in this report with CPI-trim/median forecast to hold at 2.0%/2.1% after slowing 0.4pp over the last three months."
"That would still leave core CPI tracking in line with BoC projections from the April MPR despite a higher trajectory for energy prices."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
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