US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Moves below 104.50 toward nine-day EMA support

Source Fxstreet
  • The US Dollar Index may test immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 104.17.
  • The 14-day RSI remains below 50, reinforcing the bearish bias.
  • Initial resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA at 105.62.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, has given up its recent gains from the previous session, hovering near 104.30 during Thursday's Asian trading hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a persistent bearish bias, with the index trending lower within a descending channel.

Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, reinforcing the bearish outlook. However, the US Dollar Index is holding above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting an improvement in short-term price momentum.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index could test immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 104.17, followed by the four-month low of 103.34, recorded on November 6. A decisive break below this crucial support zone may weaken the short-term price momentum, potentially driving the index toward the five-month low of 100.68.

The DXY may explore the region around the 50-day EMA at 105.62, aligned with the descending channel's upper boundary. A break above this level could reinforce the bullish bias and support the index to approach 110.18, the highest level since November 2022.

US Dollar Index: Daily Chart

US Dollar PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the British Pound.

  USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD   -0.23% -0.25% -0.23% 0.00% -0.18% -0.22% -0.07%
EUR 0.23%   -0.04% 0.00% 0.22% 0.01% -0.00% 0.15%
GBP 0.25% 0.04%   0.04% 0.26% 0.06% 0.02% 0.16%
JPY 0.23% 0.00% -0.04%   0.23% 0.01% -0.02% 0.13%
CAD -0.01% -0.22% -0.26% -0.23%   -0.18% -0.22% -0.09%
AUD 0.18% -0.01% -0.06% -0.01% 0.18%   -0.02% 0.11%
NZD 0.22% 0.00% -0.02% 0.02% 0.22% 0.02%   0.13%
CHF 0.07% -0.15% -0.16% -0.13% 0.09% -0.11% -0.13%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
US August CPI lands tonight: after a 5.4% PPI shock, will the Fed hike on September 16?US August PPI came in at 5.4% year-on-year, above the 5.3% consensus, with core PPI at 4.6%. Traders have pushed the odds of a 25bp Fed hike on September 15-16 to around 70%. Tonight's CPI is the last major inflation print before the decision — here is the full calendar, the consensus numbers, and what a hot versus cool reading would mean for the dollar, yields, gold and stocks.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 11, Fri
US August PPI came in at 5.4% year-on-year, above the 5.3% consensus, with core PPI at 4.6%. Traders have pushed the odds of a 25bp Fed hike on September 15-16 to around 70%. Tonight's CPI is the last major inflation print before the decision — here is the full calendar, the consensus numbers, and what a hot versus cool reading would mean for the dollar, yields, gold and stocks.
placeholder
Brent tests $108 as a key export pipeline stays shut — can the rally clear $110?Brent crude rose 2.55% to $106.97 and WTI 2.32% to $102.30 as a major regional export pipeline remained offline with no restart timeline. Front-month backwardation has widened to $5.53 from $3.84 a week ago, European gas is at its highest since December 2022, and one analyst sees $119.48 if talks stall.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 14, Mon
Brent crude rose 2.55% to $106.97 and WTI 2.32% to $102.30 as a major regional export pipeline remained offline with no restart timeline. Front-month backwardation has widened to $5.53 from $3.84 a week ago, European gas is at its highest since December 2022, and one analyst sees $119.48 if talks stall.
placeholder
Fed hike odds near 90% into Wednesday's decision — how to trade the dollar, gold and the S&P 500A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.
Author  Suzie
Sep 14, Mon
A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.
placeholder
Gold falls below $4,300 as higher US yields bolster Fed rate hike betsGold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,295 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal faces some selling pressure as rising bond yields and surging energy prices strengthen expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates this week. 
Author  FXStreet
Yesterday 01: 23
Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,295 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal faces some selling pressure as rising bond yields and surging energy prices strengthen expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates this week. 
placeholder
【Daily Brief】10-year Treasury yield briefly tops 5%, S&P 500 slips to 7,602 and the dollar firms at 99.3 as the Fed's decision eve beginsThe 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.014% on Monday — its first print above 5% since October 2023 — while the S&P 500 closed 0.48% lower at 7,619.98 and the dollar index firmed to 99.3. Here is the full market wrap ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision, the dot plot and the August retail sales report, plus today's CLARITY Act Senate vote.
Author  Irene Q.
Yesterday 08: 16
The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.014% on Monday — its first print above 5% since October 2023 — while the S&P 500 closed 0.48% lower at 7,619.98 and the dollar index firmed to 99.3. Here is the full market wrap ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision, the dot plot and the August retail sales report, plus today's CLARITY Act Senate vote.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote