Bank Earnings Hinge on Anthropic IPO as SpaceX Windfall Fades

Major US banks report third-quarter earnings this week after a SpaceX-fueled first half. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Herman Chan says Anthropic’s expected initial public offering (IPO) should help big banks in the fourth quarter.

However, Chan says IPO delays and an AI-led rally leave markets more fragile than record index highs suggest.

What Did SpaceX Do for Bank Revenue?

Chan describes a strong first half and a murkier second in a Bloomberg interview. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo are among the banks reporting.

Morgan Stanley, a lead underwriter on the SpaceX listing, shows the scale. The bank reported $851 million in second-quarter equity underwriting revenue, up from $500 million a year earlier. That business earns fees for helping companies sell shares.

Its wealth unit also gathered a record $148 billion in net new assets, meaning client money added. Chief Financial Officer Sharon Yeshaya said more than half came from IPO-related flows.

Chan expects wealth management to stay a strong point as net new money keeps arriving. In contrast, investment banking and trading may prove choppier.

Meanwhile, London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) data shows global investment banking fees fell 19% from the second quarter. Fees remain up 12% for the first nine months of the year.

Who Fills the Gap If Anthropic Slips?

Chan expects Anthropic’s listing in the fourth quarter to lift Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Bloomberg reported in June that both banks won lead roles, with JPMorgan also on board.

However, the Nasdaq 100 fell more than 300 points last Thursday after a report of lower OpenAI revenue. The gap traces to how OpenAI and Anthropic count cloud-partner sales, the Financial Times reported.

Banks also structure bonds and securitizations, packages of debt sold to investors, that fund data center buildouts, Chan says. Therefore, slower AI spending could cut that fee revenue.

Chan links recent cooling in Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley shares to those questions.

Credit quality remains pristine, so investors will listen for early signs of slippage. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs lead the Anthropic offering, so one delay could dent fee income for both.