Santiment Says Smart Money Is Buying Bitcoin. The 10-Year Yield Says Not So Fast

Bitcoin (BTC) wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC have added 113,950 BTC since July 15, Santiment data shows. 

The purchases lifted the group’s combined balance by 2.22% to roughly 5.24 million BTC. Santiment shared the figures as the price slipped below $84,000 on Wednesday.

A 5-Year Track Record Behind the Bitcoin Smart Money Signal

But why does this accumulation matter? Santiment counts this cohort among the “most useful smart money groups to watch.” Its five-year study found that the wallets closely tracked the crypto market’s direction.

Historically, this cohort has tended to build positions ahead of, or during, Bitcoin’s stronger price stretches. 

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The current run fits that record. The cohort kept adding coins as Bitcoin climbed from mid-August. According to Santiment, this suggests the rally drew support from well-capitalized holders as well as retail traders.

“Sustained buying from the 100-1,000 BTC group has historically been valuable alpha, especially when paired with retail fear, sentiment, and exchange-flow data,” the post read.

Treasury Yields Drag Bitcoin Under a Key Level

The accumulation arrives during a volatile week for Bitcoin, which has swung between sharp gains and losses since Monday. On September 21, Bitcoin crossed $84,000 for the first time since January 31. 

That breakout liquidated $262.30 million in short positions within an hour, according to CoinGlass. The move also came after Bitcoin’s first weekly close above its 50-week moving average in 45 weeks.

However, macro conditions turned against the rally on Wednesday. A hot US PMI report pushed the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, reviving fears of another Federal Reserve hike.

Bitcoin fell below $84,000. The same area also shows up in Glassnode’s on-chain data.

Glassnode Draws the Line at $84,000

Glassnode places the largest cluster of long-term holder supply between $84,000 and $85,000. Bitcoin briefly dipped to about $83,500 on Wednesday but closed the day near $84,400 on Binance.

On Thursday, the price slipped to roughly $83,800, just under the lower edge of that band. The daily session remains open, so the level has yet to produce a confirmed break.

Glassnode sees $95,000 to $97,000 as the next major test for Bitcoin. The mean Market Value-to-Realized Value (MVRV) price is $96,700, within that range.

“The next test is $95K-$97K, where options positioning and the mean MVRV price meet,” the firm said.

The firm added that holding above $84,000 keeps that path open. However, a drop below it would bring the $77,000 True Market Mean back into view.

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