Rising Rates Threaten GOP Turnout: Will Trump's Base Show Up Without Him on the Ballot?

Republican officials are struggling to address rising borrowing costs and interest rates as the 10-year Treasury yield holds near a three-year high, just weeks before the November midterms.

President Donald Trump spoke at the Republican National Committee’s (RNC) midterm convention in Dallas this week. He promised a $5,000 payment to every American adult if Republicans keep the House and Senate.

Why Rising Rates Are Becoming a Midterm Problem

The 10-year Treasury yield is trading near 4.85%, its highest level since 2023. That is pressuring mortgage, auto loan, and credit card rates nationwide, as yields hit multi-year highs this month.

Rising oil prices and mounting fiscal deficits are among the factors keeping yields elevated. Foreign buyers reducing Treasury purchases add further pressure heading into the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting.

Total US government debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time this year. It now sits at $40.1 trillion, up $2.67 trillion from a year ago, deepening the same borrowing cost pressure many households already feel.

Republicans Tread Carefully Around Trump

At the RNC’s midterm convention in Dallas, speakers largely avoided criticizing Trump directly over rate concerns. Bloomberg’s Josh Wingrove reported the dynamic firsthand.

Some Republicans, however, blamed past migration policy for housing costs or promised unspecified healthcare savings.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis pushed back on the dividend plan on Thursday. He said it would deepen debt and inflation.

It signals unease even among Trump allies over the plan’s fiscal cost.

Trump’s national approval rating has slipped to roughly 38%, according to poll aggregator Silver Bulletin. Republicans also face a tightening Texas Senate race, per BeInCrypto’s midterm odds coverage.

Trump has urged supporters to vote as if he were on the ballot himself. He remains wary of turnout without his name at the top, in a midterm cycle where Republicans have historically struggled.

Whether rising rates complicate that pitch further should become clearer as more polling and convention coverage arrive in coming weeks.