Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slips below $63.50 amid rising Fed rate hike odds
- Silver declines as markets price in a 72% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike next week.
- August US Producer Price Index rose 5.4% year-over-year, outpacing analyst expectations and fueling inflation worries.
- Escalating US-Iran conflict and Houthi advances near the Red Sea push oil prices higher, pressuring Silver.
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around $63.30 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Friday. Silver prices are declining as expectations grow for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in September.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a greater than 72% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase next week, a notable jump from the 61% chance recorded prior to the recent Producer Price Index (PPI) data release. Investors are also closely bracing for the upcoming United States (US) consumer price index report, which could further solidify these monetary tightening expectations.
This downward pressure comes on the heels of a hotter-than-expected PPI report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday. The report showed that the headline PPI rose 5.4% year-over-year in August, climbing from July's 4.8% increase and outpacing analyst forecasts of 5.3%. On a monthly basis, headline PPI matched expectations with a 0.4% increase, while core PPI rose by 0.2%, coming in slightly softer than initial estimates.
Beyond monetary policy concerns, Silver is also contending with headwinds from surging oil prices driven by the escalating US-Iran conflict, which has heightened broader inflation fears. Compounding these geopolitical tensions, BBC sources report that Yemen's Houthis have seized the strategic Red Sea port city of Mokha from Saudi-backed pro-government forces. This tactical capture places the Iran-backed group just 75 km (46 miles) away from the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a critical southern gateway connecting essential trade routes between Asia and Europe.
Industrial precious metals slump as rates rise and base metals falter
According to TD Securities, “industrial precious metals, such as silver and PGMs, are taking a beating as rising rates and weakness across base metals weigh heavy,” underscoring how the more cyclical segments of the precious metals complex are bearing the brunt of the current macro backdrop.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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