CLARITY Act Likely To Fail in September. Will Crypto Prices React?

The US Senate is preparing for a possible September vote on the CLARITY Act, even as lawmakers remain short of the support needed to move the crypto market structure bill forward.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune still intends to file cloture on the motion to proceed before lawmakers leave for the August recess, according to journalist Eleanor Terrett, citing multiple sources.

The move would put the CLARITY Act in position for a procedural vote when the Senate returns in September. It would also signal that Republican leadership plans to prioritize the bill despite unresolved disagreements.

However, the votes are not there yet.

60 Votes are Still Not There for CLARITY

The Senate would likely need 60 votes to move the legislation forward. Republicans do not have enough support on their own, while several GOP senators have also raised concerns about parts of the bill.

One of the biggest disputes is over stablecoin rewards.

Banks have stepped up lobbying against rules that would allow crypto companies to offer rewards linked to stablecoin use. They argue these products could draw deposits away from traditional banks.

Crypto companies, including Coinbase, have pushed back against tighter restrictions.

The issue has become increasingly important in recent days. It could make it harder for Republican leaders to keep their own members together while also attracting enough Democratic votes.

Another major obstacle is ethics.

JUST IN: Thune’s office is telling crypto leaders that it is still filing cloture on the CLARITY Act before the August recess, according to @EleanorTerrett.That sets up a September vote.But the bigger question is whether negotiators can secure the necessary votes and resolve… https://t.co/xmAJD7mwO5 pic.twitter.com/u2xJzJI9Ry

— BeInCrypto (@beincrypto) August 7, 2026

Ethics Remain the Chokepoint

Democrats have demanded stronger rules around elected officials benefiting financially from crypto businesses. The issue has become particularly sensitive because of President Donald Trump’s extensive crypto interests.

In a recent podcast with BeInCrypto, Satoshi Action Fund co-founder Dennis Porter said these disagreements have left the bill facing an increasingly difficult path through the Senate.

Porter also pointed to uncertainty among Republican senators, saying lawmakers including Rand Paul, Thom Tillis, Josh Hawley, James Lankford and Bill Cassidy were not guaranteed votes for the bill. That could force Republicans to find considerably more Democratic support.

Crypto Markets Expect CLARITY Act to Fail

On prediction market Polymarket, the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 have dropped to around 16%.

That pessimism could also change how crypto markets react if the bill fails.

“I think failure is priced in right now,” Porter told BeInCrypto. He argued that a failed vote may therefore have less impact on crypto prices than many investors expect.

However, passage could produce a different reaction.

Porter said clear rules written into law could give larger investors more confidence to make long-term crypto investments. He cautioned that any effect would likely develop over time rather than trigger an immediate Bitcoin rally.

For now, September is shaping up as the next major test. Senate leaders appear willing to force a vote, but negotiators have several weeks to find support that currently does not exist.