Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to move higher if US data comes weaker than expected – TDS

Source Fxstreet

Gold (XAU/USD) closed at an all-time high on Friday. Economists at TD Securities analyze the yellow metal’s outlook for the week ahead.

Data from the US could trigger a big reaction in XAU/USD

February ISM services, payrolls, wages and unemployment data may well be catalysts for Gold to move higher if they come in significantly weaker than expected. Otherwise, much of the latest gains will likely be given back. 

We suspect that data will be weaker, but not so poor as to drive yields much lower. As such, the market will have to wait for our $2,300+ trading target to manifest a while longer.

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Markets in 2026: Will gold, Bitcoin, and the U.S. dollar make history again? — These are how leading institutions thinkAfter a turbulent 2025, what lies ahead for commodities, forex, and cryptocurrency markets in 2026?
Author  Insights
Dec 25, 2025
After a turbulent 2025, what lies ahead for commodities, forex, and cryptocurrency markets in 2026?
placeholder
Gold rebounds above $4,350 as US Dollar, Treasury yields slipGold price (XAU/USD) rebounds from a nearly one-month low to around $4,385 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal edges higher as the ‌US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields retreat from recent highs.
Author  FXStreet
Sep 03, Thu
Gold price (XAU/USD) rebounds from a nearly one-month low to around $4,385 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal edges higher as the ‌US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields retreat from recent highs.
placeholder
Gold rebounds past $4,400 as rate-hike odds cool ahead of NFPGold is back above $4,400 after weak ADP data cut September rate-hike odds to ~58%. XAU/USD rebounded from Wednesday's $4,282 low; Friday's NFP is the next catalyst.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 03, Thu
Gold is back above $4,400 after weak ADP data cut September rate-hike odds to ~58%. XAU/USD rebounded from Wednesday's $4,282 low; Friday's NFP is the next catalyst.
placeholder
Gold rebounds above $4,450 as Waller tempers Fed rate hike bets ahead US jobs dataGold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum to around $4,470 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal extended its recovery as Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets ease. All eyes will be on the US August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is due later on Friday. 
Author  FXStreet
Yesterday 01: 32
Gold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum to around $4,470 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal extended its recovery as Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets ease. All eyes will be on the US August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is due later on Friday. 
placeholder
Yen hits one-month high on BOJ September-hike bets; AUD/JPY cracks support as carry unwindsUSD/JPY has tumbled from the 160 area to a one-month low near 155.2 in two sessions as Bank of Japan hike bets for the Sept 17-18 meeting intensify. AUD/JPY has broken below 112.7, flagging carry-trade stress. A test of 155.21 - and then 153 - is now in focus.
Author  Suzie
19 hours ago
USD/JPY has tumbled from the 160 area to a one-month low near 155.2 in two sessions as Bank of Japan hike bets for the Sept 17-18 meeting intensify. AUD/JPY has broken below 112.7, flagging carry-trade stress. A test of 155.21 - and then 153 - is now in focus.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote