Gold faces selling pressure after new all-time high of $3,057
- Gold reached a new all-time high of $3,057 this Thursday.
- Traders sent Gold higher after Powell said tariffs should only delay the inflation target.
- Gold benefits from geopolitical uncertainty as tensions remain in Gaza and Turkey.
Gold’s price (XAU/USD) has hit another new all-time high at $3,057 and currently resides near $3,044 at the time of writing on Thursday. The uptick came on the back of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision overnight, where the central bank kept rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that tariffs should only be a delay in the timing to reach the inflation target.
Meanwhile, on the geopolitical front, tensions are brewing in Gaza and Turkey. Israeli strikes continue across Gaza while calling on the population to relocate as ground offensive operations could be launched soon. Mass protests burst out in Turkey after Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu’s detention, President Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival.
Daily digest market movers: Fed projects bumpy road
- During the Federal Reserve meeting, Chairman Powell said his base case is that any tariff-driven bump in inflation will be “transitory,” but later added that it will be very challenging to say with confidence how much inflation stems from tariffs versus other factors. He also said recession odds have moved up, though are not high, Bloomberg reports.
- Swiss Gold exports to the US remained elevated in February at 147.4 tons, worth more than $14 billion, Reuters reports.
- Chinese media are advising investors to be cautious on Gold as prices are likely to be volatile going forward, according to a report published in the China Securities Journal on Thursday. The precious metal’s prices are elevated because of geopolitical uncertainties and a fast-changing global economic environment; investors should diversify assets, balance risks and avoid blindly chasing prices higher, Bloomberg reports.
Technical Analysis: It is so easy
Gold looks to be trading in a very easy narrative for now, where traders are more than happy to buy every brief dip. A similar pattern was already seen on Monday and Wednesday this week. However, the risk grows for a squeeze soon, which should wash out short-term positioning.
Regarding technical levels, the new all-time high at $3,057 is the first level to beat. The next target for this Thursday is the R1 resistance at $3,058, just below the $3,060 round number. If the last one is broken, then R2 resistance comes in at $3,069.
On the downside, the intraday Pivot Point at $3,040 is the first line of defense, followed by the S1 support near $3,030 ahead of the $3,000 level.
XAU/USD: Daily Chart
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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