Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls toward $30.50 after mixed data from China
- Silver price loses ground following mixed data from China, the world's largest manufacturing hub.
- China's GDP (YoY) grew by 4.7% in Q2, down from the previous expansion of 5.3% and below the expected 5.1%.
- The higher US Dollar puts pressure on Silver as USD-denominated commodities become more expensive for foreign buyers.
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends losses for the second successive day, trading around $30.60 per troy ounce during the early European session on Monday. This downturn can be attributed to mixed economic data from China, applying mild pressure on the grey metal. Silver is essential in various industrial applications, such as electronics, solar panels, and automotive components. Given China's status as one of the world's largest manufacturing hubs, the country's industrial demand for Silver is significant.
China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 4.7% year-over-year in the second quarter, compared to a 5.3% expansion in the first quarter and an expected 5.1%. China's Retail Sales (YoY) increased by 2.0% in June, falling short of the expected 3.3% and below May's 3.7%. Meanwhile, the country's Industrial Production for the same period showed a growth rate of 5.3% year-over-year, surpassing estimates of 5.0%, albeit slightly lower than May's 5.6%.
The US Dollar (USD) improves due to improved risk aversion following the attempted assassination of former US President Donald Trump on Saturday. Analysts suggest that if this incident boosts Trump's election prospects, it could lead to so-called 'Trump-victory trades,' which may include a stronger US Dollar and a steeper US Treasury yield curve, according to Reuters. A strong US Dollar puts pressure on commodity prices like Silver. This is because commodities priced in dollars become more expensive for foreign buyers, reducing overall demand.
The non-yielding metals like Silver may find support due to rising expectations of a potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September. This anticipation is driven by the softer-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in June. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets now indicate an 88.1% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the September Fed meeting, up from 72.2% a week earlier.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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