WTI Crude Oil steadies above $103.00 with Iran’s deadline looming
- WTI Oil prices consolidate above $103.00 amid waning hopes of a peace deal in Iran.
- Trump has threatened to "demolish" Iran if Tehran fails to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- The OPEC+ agreed to hike output by 206K barrels per day from May.
The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate Oil (WTI) hesitates near four-week highs on Tuesday. Price action remains steady above the 103.00 per barrel, but attempts to extend gains beyond 105.00 have been capped with US President Donald Trump’s deadline on Tehran approaching.
Hopes of a peace deal vanished on Monday after the US and Iran refused the plan for a 45-day ceasefire submitted by Pakistan. Iranian authorities responded with a 10-point peace proposal, which was considered “significant” but not enough by Trump.
In the meantime, Israel has attacked Tehran, and Iran has launched missiles at Israel and Saudi Arabia, apparently without casualties. Trump has repeated its threats of a “total demolition” of Iran’s bridges and energy plants after Tuesday at 8 PM Easter time (00:00 GMT on Wednesday), downplaying concerns about war crimes.
Last weekend, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) agreed to hike their output quotas by 206K barrels per day in May, although that measure would require the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to come into effect.
The closure of the critical gateway for about 20% of the global Crude supply in the first week of the war between the US and Israel and Iran triggered a rougly 50% appreciation in crude prices. The price of the WTI Oil barrel surged to a peak of $113.28 on March 9 from about $67.00 before the war, threatening the worst energy crisis in history.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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