Today’s Market Recap: US and Iran Signal Willingness to End Conflict, Three Major US Stock Indexes Surge, Dollar Ends Five-Day Winning Streak

TradingKey - As the U.S. and Iran signaled a de-escalation of their conflict, market risk appetite recovered significantly, with the three major U.S. stock indices rebounding sharply to record their largest single-day gains since last May, though monthly performance remained under pressure.

At the close, the S&P 500 rose 2.91% to 6,528.52, ending March with a cumulative decline of 5.09%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.49% to 46,341.51, with a 5.38% drop for the month; and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 3.83% to 21,590.63, though it still fell 4.75% across the full month.

In terms of sectors, warming risk appetite drove growth sectors to lead the gains. Communication services surged 4.42%, and information technology rose 4.24%; meanwhile, the energy sector, which had previously benefited from rising oil prices, saw a pullback, falling 1.2% on the day but still recording a cumulative gain of about 10% in March.

U.S. Treasury yields continued their retreating trend. The 10-year Treasury yield edged down by about 3 basis points, while the 2-year yield fell by approximately 3.29 basis points, as market expectations for policy tightening moderated.

Furthermore, the U.S. Dollar Index ended its five-day winning streak, falling about 0.7% on the day and sliding back below the 100 mark. Crypto assets trended higher amid volatile trading as risk sentiment warmed, with Bitcoin rising approximately 2.4% and Ethereum gaining over 4%.

In commodities, precious metals rebounded significantly. Spot gold rose 3.5%, achieving a three-day winning streak, though it still fell about 11% cumulatively in March; spot silver surged over 7%, reclaiming the $75 mark, but its monthly decline remained near 20%. Among industrial metals, copper prices also strengthened, rising about 3% on the day, but still ended the full month down nearly 7%.

The energy market experienced a partial pullback, with WTI spot crude oil prices falling 3.6% and Brent crude dropping more than 5.2%.

Market Headlines

Buffett issues a rare warning on valuation risks and emphasizes the importance of financial system stability. In his latest remarks, Buffett noted that current overall U.S. stock valuations are no longer attractive, calling the market "not cheap" and stating he would only consider adding positions during a significant correction. He also admitted that while Berkshire's previous investment in Apple yielded over $100 billion in gains, the pace of selling "may have been premature," and current price levels no longer provide a sufficient margin of safety. As of the end of last year, Berkshire Hathaway's cash and equivalents exceeded $370 billion, and the firm added approximately $17 billion in U.S. Treasuries this week.

NVIDIA strengthens its AI networking ecosystem, acquiring a stake in Marvell to position for the convergence of next-generation communications and computing power. NVIDIA announced a roughly $2 billion investment in Marvell Technology to further bolster its AI infrastructure footprint. Under the agreement, Marvell will provide customized XPUs (accelerated processing units) and extended networking solutions compatible with the NVLink Fusion architecture for the NVIDIA ecosystem, focusing on improving interconnect efficiency in data centers and high-performance computing scenarios.

China's March PMI returns to expansionary territory as economic recovery momentum further consolidates. In March, sentiment in both China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors rebounded simultaneously, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 50.4, returning above the 50-mark. This indicates improvements in both production and demand, with business activity for large, medium, and small enterprises recovering to varying degrees, suggesting strengthened internal drivers for economic recovery.

U.S. and Iran signal de-escalation, suggesting a window for a potential phase of cooling in Middle East tensions. Trump stated that the U.S. is expected to end military operations against Iran within "two to three weeks" and did not rule out a deal through negotiations before then, adding that U.S. troops are expected to withdraw within that timeframe. Iran also signaled de-escalation, with the Iranian President stating a willingness to end the conflict provided the nation is secured against external aggression; the Iranian Foreign Minister noted that communication channels exist, but formal negotiations have not yet commenced.

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