USD/TRY: Further gains towards 35 are possible next year – SocGen

Source Fxstreet

Türkiye’s central bank (CBRT) meets today. Economists at Société Générale analyze Lira’s outlook ahead of the Interest Rate Decision.

CBRT tightening not over

The Central Bank of Türkiye has gone fully conventional by delivering a cumulative 3,250 bps of policy tightening since the new Treasury and Finance minister, and CBRT governor Hafize Gaye Erkan were installed after the spring election. The policy rate has been raised dramatically from 8.50% pre-election to 40.0% in November, and another layer of policy restraint may be added today.

Our house view calls for a terminal rate of 45.00%, so another two 250 bps hikes, today and one more in January 2024.

We do not think the TRY is out of the woods and further depreciation towards 35.00/USD is possible next year (EUR/TRY 40.00).

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
WTI rally takes a timeout amid signs of US-Iran war de-escalationWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil futures on NYMEX trade slightly lower to near $71.50 during the European trading session on Friday. The Oil price extends its correction after posting a fresh over two-week high at $75.73 on Wednesday.
Author  FXStreet
7 hours ago
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil futures on NYMEX trade slightly lower to near $71.50 during the European trading session on Friday. The Oil price extends its correction after posting a fresh over two-week high at $75.73 on Wednesday.
placeholder
Gold recovers above $4,100 as traders assess US-Iran conflict Gold price (XAU/USD) rebounds to around $4,120 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal edges higher as traders weigh a resumption of war in the Middle East.
Author  FXStreet
16 hours ago
Gold price (XAU/USD) rebounds to around $4,120 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal edges higher as traders weigh a resumption of war in the Middle East.
placeholder
WTI consolidates below $72.00 as traders monitor geopolitical developmentsWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – steadies during the Asian session on Friday, stalling the previous day's downfall amid mixed messaging from the US and Iran.
Author  FXStreet
16 hours ago
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – steadies during the Asian session on Friday, stalling the previous day's downfall amid mixed messaging from the US and Iran.
placeholder
WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: US-Iran Conflict Reignites, Will a New Round of Oil Price Rises Begin? As of the Asian session on July 9, after WTI ( USOIL) crude oil prices rebounded sharply for two consecutive trading days, oil prices hovered and adjusted around $73.30 today. From the te
Author  TradingKey
Yesterday 08: 56
As of the Asian session on July 9, after WTI ( USOIL) crude oil prices rebounded sharply for two consecutive trading days, oil prices hovered and adjusted around $73.30 today. From the te
placeholder
British Pound strengthens to near 1.3400 as UK political risk fades The GBP/USD pair gathers strength near 1.3395 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday, bolstered by fading domestic political uncertainty.
Author  FXStreet
Yesterday 02: 03
The GBP/USD pair gathers strength near 1.3395 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday, bolstered by fading domestic political uncertainty.
goTop
quote