GBP/USD Price Forecast: Turns flat after breakdown below 1.3400
- GBP/USD rises to near 1.3385 as the US Dollar faces slight selling pressure.
- The Fed is expected to hike interest rates once again this year.
- Investors keenly await the flash UK S&P Global PMI data for September.
The British Pound (GBP) is 0.15% higher at around 1.3385 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair gains as the US Dollar is slightly under pressure ahead of meeting between leaders from the United States (US) and Gulf nations.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.07% | -0.11% | 0.06% | -0.05% | -0.07% | -0.40% | -0.10% | |
| EUR | 0.07% | -0.04% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% | -0.32% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | 0.11% | 0.04% | 0.17% | 0.05% | 0.04% | -0.28% | 0.02% | |
| JPY | -0.06% | -0.14% | -0.17% | -0.11% | -0.12% | -0.47% | -0.14% | |
| CAD | 0.05% | -0.02% | -0.05% | 0.11% | -0.01% | -0.33% | -0.02% | |
| AUD | 0.07% | 0.00% | -0.04% | 0.12% | 0.01% | -0.33% | -0.01% | |
| NZD | 0.40% | 0.32% | 0.28% | 0.47% | 0.33% | 0.33% | 0.32% | |
| CHF | 0.10% | 0.02% | -0.02% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.01% | -0.32% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly lower to near 100.35.
High-stake talks between the US and Gulf nations regarding the energy supply from the Middle East will likely take place later in the day at the sidelines of the United Nations (UN) General Assembly in New York.
On the domestic front, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is highly anticipated to deliver one more interest rate hike this year. Fed policymakers have warned that not only elevated oil prices, strong economic growth is also fuelling inflationary pressures.
In the United Kingdom (UK), investors await S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for September, which will be released on Wednesday. The PMI report is expected to show that the overall business activity growth cooled down.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3385, keeping a bearish near-term tone as spot holds beneath the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3467 and the broken upward support trend line, whose break price is located at 1.3495.
The loss of this former structural floor now acting as resistance suggests the pair remains under corrective pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 37.7 stays just above oversold territory, hinting at weakening downside momentum but not yet signaling a bullish reversal.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 20-period EMA around 1.3467, with a stronger barrier at the trend-line break level near 1.3495, where sellers are likely to defend the broader bearish structure. On the downside, the apir could decline towards 1.3300 if it fails to hold the recent low at 1.3336.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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