Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises above $62.00 on easing inflation concerns

• Silver gained amid dropping oil prices following a partial Strait of Hormuz deal, easing inflation concerns.
• Cooler-than-expected US ADP private payroll numbers further supported precious metals as interest rate expectations shifted.
• A constructive 14-day RSI and supportive Fed Sentiment Index signal firm, steady positive momentum for the asset.

Silver price (XAG/USD) remains stronger for the fourth consecutive day, trading around $62.20 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. The price of the non-yielding Silver gains momentum as news of a deal to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices lower, significantly easing broader market concerns surrounding inflation and the outlook for interest rates.

The shift comes as Iran and Oman reached an agreement on a temporary shipping route through the strategic waterway, boosting global expectations for increased Middle Eastern energy flows. A joint statement from both nations is currently in its final drafting stages. While the proposed route is slated to operate for two to four months, Tehran made it clear that this arrangement does not represent a complete reopening of the strait.

Oil timespreads underscore speculative pressure rather than weaker fundamentals

According to TD Securities, the current structure of the oil market suggests that recent price moves are being driven more by positioning than by any material shift in underlying supply-demand dynamics. Strategists there highlight that “this time around, timespreads remain much stronger, which is the clearest signal that spec flows chasing headlines are doing the heavy lifting as opposed to any loosening of the fundamentals.” In their view, the resilience of timespreads reinforces the message from physical flows that the crude market remains fundamentally tight, even as headline risk and speculative activity exert outsized influence on day-to-day price action.

Meanwhile, economic data in the US added to the market dynamics. ADP figures released on Wednesday revealed that US private-sector employment grew by just 44,000 jobs in July, a sharp deceleration from the 98,000 added in June that fell well short of the 70,000-market consensus. With labor market cooling in focus, traders are now closely watching Thursday’s US Initial Jobless Claims and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

Fed’s Cook flags inflation risks but keeps rate hike option conditional

Fed’s Cook speech scores 7.2/10 on the FXS Speechtracker, modestly above the 6.5/10 historical average, signaling a slightly more forceful tone relative to the established baseline. The remarks balance recognition of a sturdy job market and resilient expansion with a clear emphasis that inflation threats surpass job market concerns, underscoring a firm commitment to restoring price stability while keeping rate hikes conditional on the disinflation trend failing to reappear. Overall, the message leans hawkish on inflation risks but stops short of pre-committing to imminent tightening, which is supportive for the Dollar and broadly cautious for risk-sensitive assets.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index fell by 1.93 points to 140.92, indicating a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness following the speech. Despite the decline, the index remains well above the neutral 100 threshold, showing that Fed communication is still firmly in hawkish territory even as the immediate tightening impulse eases slightly according to the FXS Fed Sentiment Index and FXS Speechtracker.

Technical Analysis: XAG/USD gains amid prevailing bullish bias

XAG/USD trades around $62.20. is holding a near-term bullish bias as it advances above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $59.76 while still trading below the 50-day EMA at $62.69, which caps the topside for now. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.81 leans constructive, suggesting firm positive momentum, while the FXS Fed Sentiment Index at 140.92 hints that broader macro sentiment remains supportive rather than euphoric.

On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 50-day EMA at $62.69; a clear daily close above this barrier would open the door toward the next structural hurdles at $90.03 and $96.62, though these latter levels remain distant in the current trading context. On the downside, initial support is seen at the nine-day EMA at $59.76, ahead of the horizontal floor at $55.63.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)