Trump: U.S. Could Get Involved in Israel-Iran Conflict; Its Stocks & Dollar Defy Fears with Surprising Resilience!

TradingKey - As the conflict between Israel and Iran enters its fourth day with no clear signs of de-escalation, market sentiment has taken a subtle turn. While concerns over a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have kept oil and gold prices rising, U.S. stock futures remain positive, and the U.S. dollar has regained its safe-haven appeal during the crisis.

On Sunday, June 15, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. is not currently involved in the conflict, but added, "It's possible we could get involved. But we are not at this moment involved." 

As Trump headed to Canada for the G7 summit, he reiterated that the U.S. would continue to support Israel’s airstrikes on Iran.

Although Trump continues to deny direct U.S. involvement in the conflict, he has maintained pressure on Iran, saying, “It’s time for a deal.” Iran, meanwhile, claimed that Israel’s aggression against Iran could not have occurred without U.S. consent or backing.

Last Friday (June 13), the outbreak of hostilities fueled a surge in risk aversion, sending the VIX volatility index soaring by 15.54%. The S&P 500 retreated from recent highs and fell below the 6,000 level. 

However, by Monday morning (June 16), all three U.S. equity futures were up, with S&P 500 futures gaining 0.18%, the U.S. dollar index rising 0.14% to 98.32, and VIX futures falling more than 3%.

At the same time, gold prices rose 0.20% to $3,439.31 per ounce. After surging over 10% last week, WTI crude oil climbed another 1% to $72.11 per barrel.

Unlike earlier in the month, when the safe-haven status of the U.S. dollar was questioned, the greenback has seen a multi-day rebound amid the Israel-Iran tensions.

Monex USA Trading Director noted that while the main concern remains tariffs and global trade barriers, the sudden escalation of military conflict — which could persist or even intensify — has pushed both gold and the dollar higher as safe-haven assets, almost as a psychological response.

He added that every issue we’ve faced this year has been hard to resolve, and they have also undermined confidence in the U.S. dollar. But in times of military conflict, there is still a global consensus — investors turn to the world's safest assets: the dollar as currency, and gold as commodity.

An investment manager commented that, at this stage, the situation appears to be more of an oil issue than a stock market issue, with equities so far holding up relatively well.