Microsoft Stock Price Forecast: 60,000 Employees Offered Voluntary Severance, Pushing MSFT Market Cap Back to World's Third Largest, Shares Expected to Reach $600

TradingKey - Microsoft (MSFT) stock continued to rise after a brief pullback, closing at $532.60 on October 26, up 1.54% for its second consecutive session of gains. As its share price rebounded, Microsoft's market capitalization once again approached $4 trillion, surpassing Alphabet (GOOGL) to reclaim its position as the world's third-largest publicly traded company by market value. Meanwhile, the company offered voluntary buyout packages to approximately 60,000 employees, pushing forward headcount and cost structure adjustments while continuing to expand AI infrastructure investments, which has become a key factor shaping recent market expectations.

Microsoft Offers Voluntary Severance Packages to About 60,000 Employees

According to Reuters, Microsoft is offering a limited-time voluntary buy-out package to approximately 60,000 employees, representing over a quarter of its global workforce of 223,000. The plan covers select teams in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and India, primarily targeting employees at Level 70 and below across departments including AI Experiences, Copilot, Finance, Human Resources, Xbox, and Windows + Devices; marketing, commercial, and security departments are excluded from the plan.

This adjustment comes against the backdrop of Microsoft's continued increase in AI infrastructure investment, with the company expecting capital expenditures to reach approximately $175 billion in 2026, allocating substantial funds to data centers, servers, and AI computing capacity. Microsoft Chief People Officer Amy Coleman stated that the program aims to provide employees with a voluntary exit option while enabling business units to adapt to changing staffing needs. Earlier this year, Microsoft also offered a voluntary buy-out plan to about 9,000 U.S. employees and announced workforce adjustments of approximately 4,800 positions in July.

Therefore, this round of workforce adjustments is closer to cost and organizational structure management by Microsoft amid heavy AI capital expenditures, rather than being directly interpreted as a sudden drop in business demand. Moving forward, the market will focus on the actual number of employees accepting the buy-out package, related one-time charges, and whether personnel cost reductions can have a quantifiable impact on operating margins.

Notably, Microsoft will report its latest quarterly earnings on October 28, when Azure growth, AI revenue, and capital expenditures will remain the primary factors driving its stock price.

Microsoft Stock Price Technical Analysis

Microsoft stock daily chart, Source: TradingView

Looking at the daily chart of Microsoft's stock price, the stock challenged the $550 resistance level again on October 13, indicating a failed breakout, and subsequently began a continuous pullback. Last Friday, it pulled back to near the support level of $515, where it found some support, which bolstered the stock to rise for two consecutive trading days, suggesting that the upward trend may continue.

Regarding moving averages, the stock's 60-day and 144-day moving averages remain in a bullish alignment, and the recent pullback did not fall below the 60-day moving average, indicating that the medium- to long-term bullish trend remains intact.

Currently, the primary resistance level to watch above is $550-$555.45. If the stock price breaks out and holds above $555.45, it will open up upside room toward $600. Conversely, if the stock price faces pressure below $550 again, it may continue to adjust downward in the short term, with key downside support at $515. If this level is lost, the stock price may test support in the $477-$485 range.