Coca-Cola Stock Is Having Its Best Year Since 1996. History Says That Hasn't Been a Signal to Sell.

As I write, shares of Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) are up around 33% in 2026 on price alone, from $69.91 at year-end 2025 to about $93. This puts the drinks giant on pace for its best calendar-year gain since 1996. Shares closed at $93.90 on Oct. 16, a record, and trade just under that mark now.

After a climb like this, it's fair to ask if the gains are about to stop. But the stock's own history surprised me. Coca-Cola has seen 11 other calendar years with price gains of 30% or better since 1963, and the stock rose again the next year in 10 of those.

That record isn't a reason to buy by itself. But I think it's a solid reason not to sell just because this year's been so good.

Image source: Getty Images.

What happened after Coca-Cola's other big years?

These numbers use year-end closing prices, adjusted for stock splits. They don't count dividends, which would have lifted all of these returns on a dividend stock like Coca-Cola.

Data source: Yahoo Finance. Calculations by author.

The median follow-up gain was around 20%. For comparison, the stock climbed in 48 of all 63 years from 1963 to 2025, with a median yearly gain of about 8%.

That said, the history is messier than a 10-out-of-11 count suggests. Three of the follow-up gains were below 5%. And two of the follow-up years (1986 and 1996) were 30%-plus years in their own right, so the best runs turn up twice.

Even the lone exception was mild. After surging 55% in 1975, the stock fell around 4% in 1976.

It's also worth noting that all 11 of these years came before 1997. From 1997 through 2025, the stock's best year was a 27% gain in 2007. That makes 2026 the first test of the pattern in nearly three decades, and a pattern from the 1960s through the 1990s might not apply to today's Coca-Cola.

Earnings grew much less than the stock

Management began 2026 guiding for non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings-per-share growth of 7% to 8%. It raised the range to 8% to 9% in April, then to 9% to 10% in July, bumping the outlook up by one point every time.

The July raise came with a strong second quarter of 2026. Organic revenue (revenue growth excluding foreign exchange, acquisitions, and divestitures) grew 6% year over year, and adjusted earnings per share rose 11% to $0.97.

The stock popped 5% to a record close on July 28, when Coca-Cola reported.

But earnings haven't kept up with the share price. In the last four quarters, Coca-Cola's adjusted earnings per share came to around $3.23, about 8% above its 2025 total of $3.00. The stock's 33% rise is more than four times that.

Put simply, investors now pay around $29 for each dollar of Coca-Cola's adjusted earnings over the past year, up from about $23 at the end of 2025.

Of course, investors can't rely on paying more for each dollar of earnings every year. From here, I think further gains will likely have to come mainly from earnings growth.

Should new money wait?

Coca-Cola reports third-quarter results before the opening bell on Tuesday, Oct. 27. Management doesn't need to lift its outlook a third time. But the report must show the 9% to 10% target still holding. Investors paying around 29 times adjusted earnings are already relying on growth like that, and the stock might have a tougher time if the target slips.

Should anyone sell after the stock's best year in three decades? In 10 of the 11 past cases, holding for another year paid off. If I owned shares, I wouldn't sell them because of this year's rise alone.

Buying is a different story. With most of the rise coming from a higher valuation, I'd want either a lower price or a few more quarters of earnings growth before putting new money in. Coca-Cola's business is healthy, but the stock costs much more than it did at the start of the year.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.