Here's What a $10,000 Investment in Dutch Bros Stock Could Be Worth in 2035 (Hint: The Stock's Upside Is Massive)

With artificial intelligence (AI) stocks all the rage, growth stories in other parts of the market are often getting overlooked. That certainly appears to be the case with Dutch Bros (NYSE: BROS), as the coffee shop operator has one of the best long-term growth stories in the consumer space, yet the stock has struggled this year. However, it appears to have significant upside in the coming years. With $10,000, you could buy about 260 shares.

Dutch Bros is riding the sweet coffee drink craze made popular by Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX), while adding its own twist with its popular Rebel energy drinks. The concept is popular, as evidenced by strong same-store sales, which rose an impressive 8.3% for company-operated shops in the second quarter. It has also seen a lift by adding hot food items to its shops, which can support it.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

More than anything, though, Dutch Bros is a powerful expansion story. It ended the June quarter with 1,225 locations, of which 888 were company-owned. It plans to open at least 185 new locations this year and have more than 2,000 total shops by 2029. Its long-term goal is to operate around 7,000 shops in the U.S.

The nice thing about Dutch Bros' expansion is that it is happening at a quick but measured pace. Its shops tend to have small footprints with no indoor seating, and serve customers through two drive-thru lanes. This makes them relatively cheap to build out, although they generate strong sales, with average unit volumes (AUVs) and impressive $2.2 million. This allows the company to achieve quick payback periods on its investments and increase its store count using only its operating cash flow.

The company has also notably shown discipline while expanding. For example, in 2024, it decided to redefine its real estate plan, and it recently bowed out of a bidding war for the real estate of bankrupt Salad and Go, letting rival 7 Brew purchase the assets. While the market may not appreciate it, these are the types of decisions that lead to long-term sustainable success in the restaurant industry.

What a $10,000 investment in Dutch Bros could be worth in 2035

Through a combination of unit expansion and same-store sales growth, Dutch Bros is set to see a massive increase in sales in the coming years. Meanwhile, scale should eventually lead to robust earnings.

Analysts currently project that the company will grow its revenue to $8.5 billion in 2035 from just over $2.1 billion this year. Estimates range from $7.9 billion to $9.1 billion. Meanwhile, the lone analyst earnings per share (EPS) estimate for 2035 is $4.35. Assuming another 10% revenue growth in 2026 and 20% EPS growth, the company would produce $5.22 in EPS in 2036 on revenue of $9.4 billion.

When looking at potential future valuations, we can turn to rival Starbucks, which trades at 2.8 times fiscal 2027 (ending November 2027) sales and 30 times EPS. Starbucks has notably been working to restore margins.

If we apply a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 2.8 times on $9.4 billion in 2036 sales, Dutch Bros stock would have a $26.3 billion market cap, or a $150 stock price. That's nearly 4x upside for its current levels. Apply a 30-times forward P/E multiple, and the stock would be worth a similar $157. That would make a 260-share investment worth between $39,000 and $40,800.

That's some massive potential upside, which makes this growth stock a long-term buy. The biggest risks to the company achieving this long-term price target would be the concept becoming less popular or there being just too much competition in the space, from the likes of 7 Brew and other similar concepts, that stall growth. While the stock has huge potential, it still has to prove it can become the next Starbucks and that it won't be the next Krispy Kreme.

Geoffrey Seiler has positions in Dutch Bros. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Dutch Bros and Starbucks. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.