Should You Buy Moderna Stock? Why Many Wall Street Analysts Say "No."

Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) has remained one of the market's hottest biotech stocks. Even as the vaccine maker's shares remain off their 52-week high, hit by news of a breakthrough in using its mRNA technology to create marketable drugs for other diseases and ailments, not just for COVID-19, at around $157 per share, they're still up over sixfold over the past 12 months.

Yet while Moderna may still be sitting pretty right now, analysts remain skeptical whether the stock can hold on to its latest spate of gains.

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Moderna, the big rally, and the analyst community's cautious view

Already trending higher since late 2025, Moderna shares skyrocketed in August. This super rally came on the heels of the company's unveiling of positive late-stage clinical trial data for Intismeran Autogene, an mRNA-based cancer vaccine that Moderna is co-developing with Merck.

Per the press release, top-line results from the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial of Instimeran Autogene combined with Keytruda, Merck's immunotherapy treatment, "demonstrated meaningful improvements in recurrence-free survival (RFS) and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) in patients with completely resected Stage IIB-IV melanoma."

Perceiving this development as a positive sign for Moderna's overall plans to bring mRNA-based oncology products to market, Moderna shares surged 177% following the Aug. 19 clinical trial news. Even after giving back some of these gains in the past month, Moderna remains near multiyear highs.

That said, according to Barron's, most analysts hold either a neutral or "hold" rating on Moderna right now; two analysts have downgraded the stock following this rally. Rothschild & Co. Redburn's Simon Baker, in his downgrade from "hold" to "sell," noted that while the phase 3 data were "undoubtedly good," the market has likely overreacted to news, as it's uncertain whether the nine other clinical trials for other types of tumors will unveil similar conclusions.

In her bearish research update, J.P. Morgan's Jessica Fye also noted uncertainty over subsequent trial data, coupled with the argument that the immediate economic implications of the aforementioned clinical trial are already well-factored into the stock price.

The best move for new and existing investors

Investors who bought in before last month's big news may want to take profits right now, if not exit a Moderna position completely. In the meantime, barring any further clinical trial news, expect more investors to take profits, putting new pressure on shares.

For new investors, considering the specter of a "take profit" sell-off, you may want to sit things out for now. Alongside this risk, it's worth noting how share dilution remains an issue with Moderna as well.

Following the surge, the company has since raised $2.6 billion in capital by issuing convertible debt. Although convertible at $210.58 per share, these newly issued shares could limit upside in the event Moderna's pivot continues to propel shares to higher prices.

Moderna could be on its way from being one of the top vaccine stocks to one of the top cancer stocks, but investors may want to wait for the hype to simmer down before entering a long-term position.

JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Thomas Niel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends JPMorgan Chase, Merck, and Moderna. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.