SpaceX Is Trading Near Its Opening-Day Price Again. Forecasts Say a $5,000 Investment Will Be Worth This Much in 1 Year.

On June 12, Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) debuted to the public, giving the average retail investor their first opportunity to directly own a piece of the company. While shares opened at $150 that day, many investors had difficulty filling their initial orders, according to a CNBC report.

By June 16, the SpaceX stock price had shot up to $225.64 per share before closing that day at $211.39. After that, however, it may have felt like a roller-coaster ride for anyone who has held on to their shares. As the excitement from the initial public offering wore off, the stock price closed at $108.27 on Aug. 5.

Since then, however, the stock price rallied back, closing at $151.21 on Sept. 11, basically right back to where it started on June 12. As for where SpaceX's stock price may head next, investors can review analyst price targets. While those forecasts are not a guarantee of future stock prices, they can offer guidance for an investment decision, highlighting whether the risk may be worth the reward.

Image source: Getty Images.

The bear case for SpaceX

According to CNN, of the 41 analysts who cover SpaceX, 76% rate it a buy, 17% rate it a hold, and 7% a sell. From that group, the lowest price target over the next 12 months is $75.

We'll use the Sept. 11 closing price of $151.21 to determine what a $5,000 investment would be worth if shares sank that low. At that price, $5,000 would yield an investor a little more than 33 shares through fractional investing. If, by September 2027, the SpaceX stock price were to trade at $75, that $5,000 investment would be worth approximately $2,479.

There are a few factors that could send shares that low, ranging from a broad market sell-off or a sell-off in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks to worrisome performances in SpaceX's next few earnings reports. SpaceX is still a money-losing company, having just reported in its 2026 second-quarter earnings report that it lost $541 million. While that was better than its $1 billion net loss in the prior-year period, it was still a loss.

In addition, SpaceX continues to spend heavily, particularly on its AI division. In 2025, SpaceX spent $12.7 billion on its AI unit, $4.1 billion on its connectivity segment, and $3.8 billion on its space division. In the second quarter of 2026, SpaceX's capital expenditures totaled $18.3 billion, with its AI segment accounting for $15.8 billion of that total.

The middle ground

The highest price target included from that group of 41 analysts is $800. Since that's more likely to be a target years out than in the next 12 months, I'm going to exclude it from this hypothetical investment scenario.

That said, the median price target still indicates there could be meaningful upside over the next 12 months.

The median one-year price target from the group is $217, representing a potential gain of 43.5% from the Sept. 11 closing price of $151.21. Going back to that original investment, if shares climbed to $217, that $5,000 investment would be worth $7,174.

For the SpaceX stock price to reach that level, a few good earnings reports and progress on its AI ambitions could help fuel a higher price.

The company has progress to build on from its earnings report for the second quarter of 2026, as CNBC reported that revenue of $7.8 billion handily exceeded expectations of $6.9 billion. Its AI, connectivity, and space divisions all beat individual expectations for each unit. And while its AI and space divisions are unprofitable, the connectivity division reported operating income of $1.6 billion.

Going back to its AI division, SpaceX could also generate investor enthusiasm with updates on progress toward its orbital data centers, as well as generating new deals to rent compute capacity to other tech players. It has deals with both Anthropic and Alphabet, under which those companies are renting compute capacity from its data centers. Combined, those deals could be worth $26 billion annually.

In addition, it has a similar deal with Reflection AI, which is renting out compute capacity from SpaceX for $150 million per month. If the deal runs through its entirety, it could generate a total of $6.3 billion for SpaceX. Given that the company generated $18.7 billion in sales in 2025, the revenue from these compute capacity deals is notable.

Putting everything together

Based on how SpaceX has traded thus far and analysts' targets over the next 12 months, the picture suggests a stock price that's likely to remain volatile. While the median price target shows potential gains of roughly 43%, the lowest price target shows a potential loss of 50%.

That makes investing in SpaceX still best suited to aggressive investors who understand the risks but believe the long-term upside could outweigh the downside.

Jack Delaney has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.