Oklo vs. NuScale vs. TMC: 3 Speculative Bets, Ranked By Which One Pays Off First.

Finding a start-up with incredible technology that eventually becomes a trillion-dollar business is the dream of most investors. Essentially, everyone wants to get in early on the next Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), or Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). The only problem is that many small companies fall by the wayside. So investors looking at start-ups like Oklo (NYSE: OKLO), NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR), and TMC The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC) need to tread with caution. But it looks like NuScale Power may have the lead in building its business. Here's why.

TMC The Metals Company has an audacious goal

The company that probably faces the biggest hurdles is The Metals Company. Like the other two, it is working on new technology. That said, its tech is in the mining sector, a fairly mundane business. The unique piece of the puzzle is that The Metals Company wants to build its mining operation deep under the world's oceans.

Image source: Getty Images.

This has been tried before, and it proved too costly. The Metals Company believes the technology advances it has made will change that. But it still hasn't gotten all of the approvals it needs to start building out its mining operations. At this point, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has publicly stated that it has received The Metals Company's permit request by putting it in the National Register. That's an important step, but it is still a very early one. This is a money-losing start-up that likely has a long way to go before it even starts building the mining operation it hopes to run.

Oklo just got some bad news

Oklo is looking to build small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs). Its plan is to own and operate the reactors and sell the power they generate. This is a step forward for the nuclear power industry, with the current nuclear fleet made up of giant reactors that require special safety precautions. An SMR could be placed closer to population centers and even directly next to a customer, such as an artificial intelligence data center. Notably, it could provide off-grid power and will likely be quicker to build than a traditional large nuclear reactor.

Oklo has a test reactor up and running, which is impressive. However, it was also informed by PJM Interconnection that it was dropped from an interconnection study. Oklo is trying to fight the decision, noting that it could delay the study project by 14 months or more. Essentially, it looks like the company's business model is still a work in progress, and the progress just hit a speed bump.

NuScale Power is just waiting for someone to sign on the dotted line

NuScale Power is looking to build and sell SMRs. It has an approved design, and it is working with two potential customers. RoPower, a Romanian power company, has given the green light to a nuclear project that would use six NuScale SMRs. But RoPower still needs to secure financing for the project before this is a done deal. NuScale is also working with ENTRA1 Energy and the Tennessee Valley Authority. This potential opportunity is working through milestones that, if things go well, will lead to an SMR sale. But the finish line is still a little way away, so no deal is imminent.

That said, NuScale Power is working to get ahead of its first order, gearing up its manufacturing capabilities. So it is ready to hit the ground running, which, combined with how close it appears to signing a contract, likely gives it an edge over Oklo and The Metals Company on building out its business. But, investors still need to tread with caution. There is still no official deal, and even after agreeing to sell its first SMR, NuScale Power still needs to deliver it, and it needs to operate as expected.

In other words, even though NuScale Power may be close to selling its first nuclear reactor, it is likely still a long way away from being a sustainably profitable business.

Only the most aggressive investors should consider these stocks

Investors can debate at length whether NuScale Power, Oklo, or The Metals Company is the more attractive investment. And which one pays off first is still just a guess. But there is one very clear fact to consider before buying any of them: These are small start-up businesses that are likely to continue losing money for at least a while longer. Only the most aggressive growth investors should probably consider buying any of them at this point in their development. And that includes NuScale, even after it inks its first official sale.

Reuben Gregg Brewer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool recommends NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.