Where Will the Nasdaq Be in 2036? History Has Good and Bad News for Growth Investors.

Past performance is never a guarantee of future results. It is, however, a pretty good indication of what the future likely holds. That's particularly true if the key underpinnings of that past performance are still in place.

With that as the backdrop, what can the past 30 years' worth of performance from the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) tell us about the next 10 years?

Arguably more than you might think.

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You may recall that 30 years ago marked the very beginning of a sweeping (and bullish) technological revolution, with most of that revolution's top publicly traded technology names being Nasdaq-listed. And they still are. Given that human behavior and economic cycles haven't really changed much since then either, we can reasonably expect the Nasdaq Composite's average annual net gain of 11% since September of 1996 to persist. That would put the index right at 75,360 by this point in 2036.

That's obviously better than the S&P 500's (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) average annual net return of 10%. Just remember the volatility and harrowing swings that the market's favorite tech stocks are also famous for dishing out. The Nasdaq also didn't regain its early 2000 peak until the middle of 2015. That's 15 lost years for any buy-and-hold investors who patiently waited for the index's recovery.

Although the circumstances now are different from those then, never say never. There's certainly no denying that a bunch of artificial intelligence stocks are currently being valued like a bunch of dot-com names were in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Of course, diversification beyond the technology sector -- as well as beyond Nasdaq-listed stocks -- could help curb much of this index-specific risk.

James Brumley has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Nasdaq. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.