Prediction: AST SpaceMobile Triples Its Revenue Again by 2028

Few companies are growing like AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS). The space-based cellular broadband company reported second-quarter revenue of $31.5 million in August, up from just $1.2 million in the year-ago period. And management's revenue guidance for this year is $150 million to $200 million.

I predict the company triples that again by 2028, topping $500 million in revenue. That would be a sharp slowdown from last year's sixteenfold jump, from $4.4 million to $70.9 million, and a step down again from this year's guided growth, which sits at about 2.5 times 2025 revenue at the midpoint.

The market has plenty of doubt. Shares of the growth stock sit near $67 as of this writing, down about 50% from a 52-week high of $133.86.

Here's a closer look at the math -- and the step most likely to slip.

Image source: AST SpaceMobile.

The ramp so far

Momentum inside 2026 points the right way. First-quarter revenue of $14.7 million more than doubled in the second quarter. Indeed, even the low end of guidance implies more than $100 million in the second half.

That said, the sales are lumpy, coming mostly from gateway equipment deliveries and U.S. government milestones. The fourth quarter of 2025 brought in $54.3 million, and the following quarter brought just $14.7 million. Growth from here depends on those government programs continuing while a second kind of revenue arrives -- recurring service revenue from wireless partners as the network switches on.

What does tripling take?

Tripling from the middle of the guided range (about $175 million) means clearing $500 million in 2028. That requires about 70% annual growth, two years running.

The demand side is arguably the easy part. AST SpaceMobile's contracted revenue backlog has reached about $1.3 billion (more than six times the high end of this year's guidance). And recent months brought over $125 million of new U.S. government awards. More than 60 mobile network operators covering over 3 billion subscribers have signed on as partners, too.

Converting that demand takes satellites, though. The company says 25 satellites in operation can support noncontinuous service in selected markets, and about 45 to 60 can enable continuous coverage across the United States, Europe, and Japan. Management believes it is funded for about 90. Today, the constellation stands at 13 after six satellites launched in under 50 days this summer, and beta service with select partners is planned for later this year.

Management, notably, is aiming higher than I am. On the second-quarter earnings call, President Scott Wisniewski said the goal remains approaching $1 billion in revenue in the company's first full year of commercial service.

My call sits at about half that, on purpose. After all, that first full year depends on continuous coverage arriving on schedule, and the schedule keeps moving.

Launch timing is the weak link

In March, the stated goal was 45 to 60 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026. By May, the target was approximately 45 satellites during 2026. By August, it was about 45 in early 2027.

In other words, in five months the top of the range disappeared and the date slid back a quarter.

A launch setback in April didn't help. The upper stage of a rocket placed the BlueBird 7 satellite into a lower-than-planned orbit, and the satellite was de-orbited.

Sure, more slips could come. But a delayed launch likely pushes revenue out a quarter or two. It doesn't erase the contracted demand.

And the balance sheet buys time, despite deeply negative free cash flow. Counting a $1.15 billion July convertible note raise, AST SpaceMobile held more than $3.7 billion of cash on a pro forma basis as of June 30.

The spending is heavy, however, with capital expenditures on satellites and launch payments leading the way. The company used about $1.1 billion of cash across operations and investing in the first half of 2026. Separately, it booked a loss of about $126 million, net of insurance recoveries, on the lost satellite. At that pace, the cash runway is less than two years.

Ultimately, I expect AST SpaceMobile to top $500 million in revenue in 2028, even if a few satellites arrive a quarter late. The contracted backlog and the growing government business both point that way.

The stock is a separate question, and it comes down to valuation. With a market capitalization of about $26 billion, shares already trade at about 50 times the 2028 revenue I'm predicting, and about 150 times the revenue it expects this year.

Even expecting the tripling, I'd only own it as a small, speculative position.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.