Will SpaceX Stock Get Back to $200 Before the End of 2026?

Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX), better known as SpaceX, have been rising steadily in recent weeks. However, they finished last week at just below $148 -- a far cry from the more than $225 they hit at their peak in June, shortly after the rocket company's initial public offering.

There's been some uncertainty about how well the stock's inflated valuation will hold up, given that the business is full of question marks, yet it has a market cap of around $2 trillion. The good news for early investors is that there appears to be support for the stock in the $150 range.

The big question, however, is whether it can rise even higher and reach over $200 by the end of the year. Let's take a look at both the bullish and bearish cases for that.

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Why SpaceX's stock is a tough one to forecast

SpaceX's valuation was never justifiable, even when it began trading publicly, with its market cap eclipsing $2 trillion and the company at one point being more valuable than some of the biggest names in tech. Investors have been drawn to its growth story, with its most lofty ambition being its plan to send people to Mars. Surely, if it can achieve that, its valuation may end up looking cheap.

The problem, however, is that that is something that could take years, perhaps even decades, to achieve. In the meantime, the business is incurring losses and spending aggressively on artificial intelligence, its Starlink internet businesses, and other growth opportunities.

The company did show progress in its latest earnings report, as its loss shrank from over $1 billion to $541 million for the period ending June 30. However, as it scales its operations, its losses may inevitably rise higher. Whether investors will be able to tolerate that is what could ultimately dictate the stock's path.

Why I wouldn't expect SpaceX stock to hit $200 by the end of the year

In the past month, SpaceX's stock has risen by nearly 20%. There's been some strong momentum of late, but the danger is that it's been driven by the market's strength. With a rate hike potentially looming and growing concern seeping into markets toward the latter part of the year, I think it's more likely that investors will trim risky positions rather than add to them.

SpaceX stock could be vulnerable to a pullback later this year because, unless the company delivers an incredibly strong performance in its next earnings report, there may be more reasons to sell than to buy. Investors should tread carefully, as SpaceX has shown to be a volatile investment since going public.

David Jagielski, CPA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.