Cerebras vs. SpaceX: Which 2026 IPO Is the Better AI Stock to Own for the Next 5 Years?

Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ: CBRS) and Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), known as SpaceX, are two prominent companies that went public in 2026. Cerebras started trading on May 14, while SpaceX followed on June 12.

Cerebras builds wafer-scale artificial intelligence (AI) systems (computers built around a single large processor) and sells access to its computing power through the cloud. SpaceX operates reusable rockets, the Starlink satellite network, and an AI segment that includes the Grok large language model and AI computing infrastructure.

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Cerebras is much smaller than SpaceX in terms of market capitalization. However, its cloud revenue is growing rapidly at a time when more AI spending is shifting from training models toward inference or running them in production.

SpaceX has already generated nearly $2.6 billion in revenue from the AI business in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 (ending June 30). But it also has its profitable Starlink-driven Connectivity business to help fund that expansion.

Hence, the key question is whether Cerebras' faster growth potential can outweigh SpaceX's greater financial strength over the next five years.

Cerebras could benefit more as AI spending shifts to inference

Gartner expects global spending on AI inference to reach $23.3 billion in 2026, overtaking the $19 billion spent on training. Inference is expected to account for 59% of AI-optimized cloud infrastructure spending by 2027.

Cerebras is already benefiting from this trend. The company's non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) cloud and services revenue jumped 287% year over year to $127.7 million in the second quarter (ending June 30). Total non-GAAP revenue (core revenue) was up 103.3% year over year to $209.9 million, ahead of management's non-GAAP revenue guidance of around $194 million.The company also raised full-year core revenue guidance to $880 million to $890 million, up from the previous outlook of $855 million to $865 million.

However, Cerebras is exposed to customer concentration risk. Three customers accounted for about 76% of the company's second-quarter revenue. Additionally, while Cerebras had $25.4 billion in remaining performance obligations (RPO) at the end of the second quarter, only 22% is expected to be recognized as revenue over the two years ending June 2028.

SpaceX can fund its AI expansion more easily

SpaceX's Connectivity segment generated around $4.3 billion of revenue and roughly $1.7 billion of operating income in the second quarter (ending June 30). This profitable business provides SpaceX with an important source of revenue to support its AI expansion.

However, the AI segment posted an operating loss of around $1.3 billion while consuming $15.8 billion of capital expenditures during the quarter. Management expects SpaceX to reach a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by December 2026, but achieving that target will require enormous investment.

Which is the better AI-powered pick?

Cerebras is currently trading at around 14.9 times analysts' expected 2027 revenue of $2.95 billion. SpaceX is even more expensive at roughly 17.4 times analysts' expected 2027 revenue of $105.47 billion (as of Aug. 24).

While SpaceX clearly has the stronger financial base, the company's AI expansion is already extremely capital-intensive. Cerebras appears to offer the better five-year risk-reward balance. The risk is much higher, particularly because of customer concentration and the long timeline for converting its RPO into revenue. But if Cerebras can scale capacity while improving margins, its growth could justify that risk.

Manali Pradhan, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.