Elon Musk Says SpaceX Could Generate $1 Trillion in Revenue by 2030. Here Are 2 Companies That Could Get There First

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX) beat the record for the largest IPO in history in mid-June. Since then, it's been a volatile ride for the company. The stock initially soared to about $225 per share before falling sharply and bottoming out at $104. Now, it's back at $143, slightly above its IPO price. And if we are to believe the company's CEO, Elon Musk, SpaceX could generate outstanding returns over the next few years.

Musk recently said that SpaceX now expects to reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. That would be an amazing accomplishment, considering it generated just $7.8 billion in the second quarter and, as of writing, analysts expect $44.63 billion in revenue for the company this year. SpaceX may not reach that goal, but let's consider two companies that seem much more likely to do so: Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Walmart (NASDAQ:WMT).

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1. Amazon

Amazon generated $716.9 billion in revenue in 2025. It would need a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.88% to reach $1 trillion by 2030. That's well within the company's reach, and so far this year, it is well above that. In the first six months of 2026, Amazon's revenue was $382.1 billion, up 18% year over year. There is a real chance that Amazon will reach $1 trillion even before 2030. And the e-commerce specialist could deliver above-average returns along the way. It remains the runaway leader in the U.S. e-commerce market and should continue to benefit as more retail transactions shift online.

Amazon's e-commerce operations still generate most of its sales, but they don't have particularly high margins. The company is looking to improve through various artificial intelligence (AI)-powered features. Even minor AI productivity gains across the company's entire retail business could boost margins and profits.

That said, Amazon's most important growth driver remains its cloud computing segment, Amazon Web Services (AWS). It has been firing on all cylinders, posting accelerating sales growth in the past few quarters.

AWS is the leader in cloud computing, and it still has a vast runway ahead, given that, as CEO Andy Jassy said, 85% of IT spending still happens on-premises. Further, Amazon should boost margins in its cloud segment by doubling down on internally developed AI chips, while potentially tapping into a new opportunity as it considers selling them to external customers.

Amazon has a massive remaining runway for growth. The company is very likely to become the first to generate $1 trillion in annual sales, and it should deliver excellent returns long after that.

2. Walmart

During Walmart's fiscal year 2026, which ended on Jan. 31, 2026 (Walmart's fiscal years do not match calendar years), the company generated $713.2 billion in revenue, an increase of 4.7% year over year. So, the retail giant needs a CAGR of about 7% to reach $1 trillion by the fiscal year ending in January 2031. That wouldn't be an easy feat for Walmart. In fact, if I were a betting man, I'd say the company won't reach that milestone; instead, it will reach $1 trillion in the fiscal year ending in January 2032.

Still, there are great reasons to invest in the stock. Walmart may not be attractive to growth-oriented investors, but it boasts a highly resilient and reliable business that can navigate almost any environment. Even when the retail industry faces challenges, Walmart outperforms most of its peers, largely thanks to its ability to offer lower prices. Walmart negotiates favorable deals with suppliers thanks to its vast scale, and it passes those cost savings on to customers.

Walmart also benefits from its vast network of retail locations. About 90% of people in the U.S. live within 10 miles of one of its stores, making the company a convenient option for most, especially given its massive catalog. These factors are also critical to the company's e-commerce business, where it trails only Amazon in the U.S. Walmart’s e-commerce sales have been growing faster in recent years, and, given that they carry higher margins than its brick-and-mortar operations, this will work wonders for the company's profits over the long run.

And we haven't even talked about Walmart's higher-margin advertising business, which has also been performing well. Finally, arguably one of the most attractive aspects of Walmart for investors is its dividend. Walmart is a Dividend King, which refers to companies that have increased their payouts for 50 (or more) consecutive years. Walmart's dividend track record speaks volumes about the strength of the company's underlying business. All of that makes the stock a great pick for long-term income seekers.

Prosper Junior Bakiny has positions in Amazon and Walmart. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.