History Says This Is What Will Happen to Nvidia Stock After Aug. 26
Key Points
Nvidia's share price performances in the wake of its Q2 reports over the past two years haven't been great.
This time is different due to its lower valuation level.
- 10 stocks we like better than Nvidia ›
Aug. 26 is going to be a very important day in the stock market, with perhaps the most anticipated earnings report of Q2: Nvidia's (NASDAQ: NVDA). This earnings season has seen a lot of wild share price movements following reports, and I expect Nvidia's to be no different. However, after looking at historical trends, I think there's a good chance for a move in the right direction.
But how can investors come to the conclusion that Nvidia's Q2 report will result in a stock pop? By looking at where the stock has been at this point in previous years.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
Image source: Nvidia.
Nvidia looks cheap compared to where it normally trades at
Nvidia is a far different company now than it was at any previous point during its lifecycle, so looking at its data five to ten years back isn't really helpful. Instead, I think investors should focus on where the stock was at this time in 2024 and 2025, as that is the best comparison investors have.
Prior to Q2 results being reported at the end of August 2024, this is how the stock was valued from a forward earnings standpoint.
NVDA data by YCharts.
After earnings, the stock dropped, but that was because it was pretty highly valued at over 40 times forward earnings. However, the stock largely rebounded from that decline in short order.
In 2025, a drop also occurred after Q2 earnings.
NVDA data by YCharts.
It recovered from most of that 2025 decline, too. However, in August 2025, it was trading at about the same valuation levels as in August 2024: rising to nearly 40 times forward earnings, then falling to about 35 times forward earnings.
Nvidia isn't even close to that range now.
NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts.
At 25 times forward earnings, Nvidia is pretty reasonably priced heading into the next earnings report. If its premium rises to even 30 times forward earnings, which still would be a more than fair price to pay for this stock, that would result in a quick 20% gain. I think that's a major possibility heading into earnings because Nvidia's stock today isn't all that expensive relative to where it has traded historically.
Because of that, I think investors should begin loading up on shares now, as Nvidia's Q2 report could kick-start a major end-of-the-year rally in the stock.
Even if the stock drops in the short term, I think the outlook for Nvidia is still quite strong, as it's still the king of AI computing units. With the AI build-out expected to last for several years more, it's a smart stock to buy now.
Should you buy stock in Nvidia right now?
Before you buy stock in Nvidia, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Nvidia wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $421,511!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,381,960!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 981% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 216% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
See the 10 stocks »
*Stock Advisor returns as of August 16, 2026.
Keithen Drury has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Recommended Articles
