Social Security COLA Watch 2027: Here's the Latest on What to Expect
Key Points
Social Security's 2027 COLA is shaping up to be higher than 2026's raise.
We won't have an official COLA until mid-October.
There are estimates based on current inflation data, but a big piece of the puzzle is still missing.
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If you were disappointed by Social Security's 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, that arrived earlier this year, you may be hoping for a more generous boost to your monthly benefits in 2027. And the good news is that initial estimates are, in fact, calling for a larger raise in the new year.
How much bigger could next year's COLA be? That's the big question. Here's what we know so far and what we don't know.
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Cooling inflation has downgraded the 2027 COLA forecast
Earlier this year, independent Social Security analyst Mary Johnson predicted that next year's COLA could be as high as 4.7%. But cooling inflation has caused Johnson and others to change their tune.
Now, Johnson estimates next year's COLA at 3.4%. The Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group, meanwhile, projects that next year's COLA will come in at 3.6%.
If we split the difference, it means Social Security recipients could see their benefits rise about 3.5% in 2027 if inflation doesn't wiggle much in the near term. If it increases, a higher raise could be in store for retirees. If inflation continues to cool, seniors may see a smaller COLA this January.
Social Security COLAs are based on inflation readings from July, August, and September. July's data is already in, but we'll need to wait until September to get data on August.
The final piece of the puzzle should arrive on Oct. 14, which is when inflation data for September is scheduled to be released. Once that information comes through, the Social Security Administration should be able to announce an official 2027 COLA that same day.
Don't expect next year's COLA to change your financial outlook
You may be banking on a generous 2027 COLA to improve your finances or give you more breathing room. But one thing to remember is that COLAs are merely designed to help ensure that Social Security benefits keep up with inflation.
In other words, the best any given COLA can do is match inflation, not beat it. So, if you're having a hard time paying your bills and don't have much income outside of Social Security, your best bet may be to try to reduce spending.
If that's not possible because you're already spending minimally, a part-time job could come to your rescue. Working even a few hours a week could help your finances a lot more than your upcoming COLA, even if it ends up coming in higher than what the latest projections call for.
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