Is Bitcoin's Bear Market Low In? A Signal Absent for 45 Weeks Returns

Bitcoin (BTC) has appreciated roughly 30% since August, and despite a volatile September, the largest cryptocurrency has stayed in the green for the month with gains of 3.33%.

Beyond those gains, Bitcoin has also flashed a key signal, suggesting the bear market lows for this cycle may be in.

Alex Thorn Says this Bitcoin Signal Has Confirmed Past Bottoms

That signal arrived on Sunday. Bitcoin posted its first weekly close above its 50-week moving average since November 2025. No weekly close had finished above that average in the 45 weeks since.

Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, flagged the close and pointed to what it has meant in earlier cycles.

“Regaining the 50w MA has historically served as strong confirmation that bear market lows are in,” he said.

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Historical data provides some context for Thorn’s view. In a research note, the executive identified 13 instances in completed bear markets when Bitcoin crossed back above its 50-week moving average.

Only two of those instances were followed by another lower low, with both occurring during the 2021–2022 decline. More broadly, four of the five bear markets that lost the moving average saw the first reclaim after the cycle low hold as the eventual recovery signal.

This history helps explain why the latest weekly close has drawn attention. However, the 50-week average is only one part of the broader cycle structure.

Why the 50-Week and 200-Week Averages Matter For Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s 50-week and 200-week moving averages have historically provided important reference points during major market cycles. The 200-week moving average has acted as a floor, with only 56 of 642 weekly closes printing below it since its existence. 

The 50-week average has served as the ceiling, capping rallies until a drawdown ends. According to Thorn, this cycle has “so far behaved similarly to the 2015 and 2018 bear markets at the floor.” 

Bitcoin lost the 50-week moving average during the week of November 16, 2025. It then reached a bear market low of $58,525 on June 30, 2026, marking a 53.1% decline from its October 2025 record of $124,824.

Since then, Bitcoin has gained 39%. Sunday’s weekly close came 3.0% above the 50-week moving average at $78,786 and 23.9% above the 200-week average at $65,487. Bitcoin traded at $81,341 at press time.

The recovery above both levels strengthens the case that the low could be in. Still, the latest move has not eliminated the possibility of another decline.

Several analysts expect Bitcoin to bottom in October. The coming weeks will therefore test whether June’s low holds as the cycle floor or whether the calendar call proves right.

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