Nvidia's Record Results Aren't ‘Impressive Enough' Because It's Sold Out, Analyst Says

Nvidia’s second-quarter earnings beat Wall Street estimates and guidance topped $108 billion, yet Seaport Research Partners analyst Jay Goldberg says the results still are not “impressive enough” to move the stock.

Goldberg is the lone Wall Street analyst with a sell rating on Nvidia. He argues its sold-out chip supply leaves little room for upside surprises this year.

Nvidia Beats, But The Market Shrugs

Nvidia (NVDA) reported second-quarter revenue that beat Wall Street estimates by roughly $4 billion. Revenue nearly doubled from a year earlier.

Guidance for the current quarter came in at $108 billion, above the $103.9 billion analysts expected.

Goldberg, speaking on Bloomberg Technology, said the beat itself will not be enough.

“I think my initial impression is that’s a really impressive quarter and nobody’s going to care.”

Jay Goldberg, Bloomberg

He said Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang could still move the stock through his tone on the earnings call. Huang is a persuasive speaker, though his recent track record on that front has been mixed.

Sold Out, With No Room To Surprise

Goldberg’s argument centers on supply, not demand. Nvidia’s chip allocations are already locked in for the year, he said. That limits how far the results can move the stock.

“They’re sold out and where do you get upside when you’re sold out? That’s not going to change this year.”

Jay Goldberg, Bloomberg

He pointed to Nvidia’s dependence on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. That reliance, he said, is a constraint that will not ease soon.

Groq, which he called an Nvidia acquisition, could add volume next year outside that limit, he said. Software and neocloud revenue could add further growth as well.

He also flagged mounting competition from AMD’s Instinct chips, Google’s TPU, and in-house chip efforts at OpenAI and Anthropic. Still, he expects Nvidia to keep the largest market share.

A Bull Case On The Other Side

Not every analyst agrees. UBS analyst Tim Arcuri said the numbers should boost confidence in Nvidia’s earnings path into 2027 and 2028. He treats the results as more important than the market’s muted reaction.

Nvidia shares briefly erased an early after-hours dip. That pattern has repeated across the company’s longest losing streak since 2022 heading into earnings.

Whether that holds may decide if Goldberg’s sold-out thesis keeps capping the stock.