IMF's Georgieva sets up face-off between Iran war headwinds and AI gains

The IMF is looking in two directions at the same time in framing its global economic forecast. 

Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, claims the war in Iran has skyrocketed energy prices and kept the forecast low. At the same time, the IMF sees AI as a big engine for growth and productivity.

Georgieva blames Iran war for rising inflation

Georgieva has stated clearly where the source of inflation is. Higher inflation has taken ages to subside, and she pins the blame on the conflict in Iran.

Her argument was that the effect of the war goes beyond the nations doing the fighting. Every nation uses energy, so everyone is impacted by the rising energy prices. However, not every country is affected the same way. Some countries in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are hardest hit compared to their European counterpart. 

In her opinion, there is no quick solution as damaged energy infrastructure will take ages to be rebuilt. This means prices will remain high despite a potential ceasefire. She, however, expressed hope that, just like past events of such kind, governments will be pushed towards more diversification and efficiency. 

Forecasters see slow growth and higher inflation in 2026

The numbers support Georgieva’s warnings. A Wall Street Journal survey of economists has predicted a recession to be at 33% over the next year. For context, inflation was at 27% in January. 

The remainder of the survey painted a darker picture. Economic growth in 2026 was expected to fall to 2% from 2.2%, while consumer inflation estimates went from 2.6% to 3.2%, and job growth was expected to slow, falling from 64,500 to 45,000. 

They predicted a drop in oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate expected to fall to $79.66 a barrel by year’s end, approximately 18% below the $96.57 close of the survey referenced.

The fund’s second message: AI is a catalyst for global growth

In light of the gloomy economic forecast, the IMF has an optimistic view of the tech sector. As The Financial Times reported, the IMF believes that AI is only going to boost productivity.  

According to a CEPR column released on August 20, IMF economists Rachel Yuting Fan and Ha Nguyen predict that AI saves around $2.7 trillion worth of time every year, or approximately 3.4% of the GDP of 86 countries. 

The economists tracked actual AI usage using five waves of the Anthropic Economic Index (a record of Claude conversations from January 2025 to February 2026) when building this measure.

Rich countries and high-income jobs see AI gains the most

The issue with AI gains, however, is distribution. Fan and Nguyen found that AI gains are concentrated in high-income countries. These countries account for 96% of total labor-cost savings, while middle-income economies account for just 0.6% and low-income countries a mere 0.1%.

The uneven balance also shows up within countries as well. The best-paid occupations tend to enjoy AI gains the most, with per-capita AI usage 200 times more than in low-income jobs.

The authors’ concentration index reads 0.44 in the United States but sits near 1 in Tanzania, where nearly all the value pools in a small professional group. The usage-weighted average wage of AI users actually fell 5.5% over 13 months as adoption spread into lower-paid work, yet the aggregate gains still doubled.

The same technology the IMF also warned about 

The AI story is a double-edged sword. The IMF warned about advanced AI models in a May report, saying they could lead to a rise in cyberattacks and threaten financial stability. 

The report cited the ability of some models to find and exploit software flaws without expert operators. 

Georgieva repeated the message bluntly, stating the IMF is “very keen to see more attention to the guardrails that are necessary to protect financial stability in a world of AI.”

The smartest crypto minds already read our newsletter. Want in? Join them.