GBP/USD Price Forecast: Fresh downside leg likely below 1.3200

• GBP/USD slides to near 1.3234 as the US Dollar outperforms.
• The US Dollar trades firmly ahead of the US JOLTS Job Openings data for August.
• Markets price in BoE 100 bps interest rate tightening by July 2027.

The British Pound (GBP) is down 0.15% at around 1.3234 against the US Dollar (USD) during the early European trading session on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair is under pressure as the US Dollar trades firmly ahead of the United States (US) JOLTS Job Openings data for August, which will be published at 14:00 GMT.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.15% higher to near 101.33.

According to estimates, the Job Openings report will show that US employers posted 7.23 million fresh jobs, marginally lower than 7.271 million in July.

The Job openings data is expected to influence Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations, which currency shows a 70% chance that there will be a hike in the October meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Meanwhile, the British currency remains broadly under pressure even as financial markets have priced in almost 100 basis points (bps) monetary tightening by the Bank of England (BoE) in one year.

Pound outlook pressured as UK growth lags

Analysts at HSBC said in a note that “markets are already pricing around 100bp of tightening from the Bank of England by July 2027,” but caution that “higher energy prices create a difficult policy mix: inflation risks are rising even as growth momentum faces a challenging outlook,” leaving the Pound vulnerable as policy trade-offs intensify.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD trades at 1.3234, retaining a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3373.

The pair remains capped by this overhead EMA, which reinforces the downside tone, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 29 signals oversold conditions that could slow immediate selling rather than trigger a decisive rebound.

On the topside, initial resistance is the 1.3300, followed by the 20-day EMA at 1.3373, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease bearish pressure and open the way for a corrective recovery. Looking down, the pair could extend its decline to near 1.3140 if it fails to hold the immediate support level at 1.3200.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)