Tesla-SpaceX Merger Expectations Heat Up as Stock Nears $400 in 5-Day Rally, Poised to Gain Over 20% More

TradingKey - On November 12, Eastern Time, Tesla (TSLA) shares extended their recent rally, rising 1.69% to close at $397.45 after hitting an intraday high of $401.22 on trading volume of about 29.15 million shares. This marked a fifth consecutive trading day of gains, bringing TSLA's cumulative rebound over the past five sessions to approximately 15.6%.

Markets have recently renewed their focus on a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX (SPCX). According to Bloomberg, the two companies are advancing merger talks that could be announced as early as December, though a delay to early 2027 is also possible. Currently, boards and advisors on both sides are still discussing transaction terms and the post-merger governance structure. Musk previously stated that merging the two companies is "a good idea" and confirmed that both sides have established committees of independent directors to evaluate the transaction. Following the news, Tesla shares gained as much as about 1.9% intraday, indicating that merger expectations provided some support for near-term market sentiment.

In terms of potential impact, a merger could integrate Tesla's electric vehicle, Robotaxi, and Optimus robotics businesses with SpaceX's Starlink, AI computing power, aerospace, and Terafab chip initiatives under a single capital platform. This would help reduce duplicative investments and strengthen synergies across AI, robotics, and computing infrastructure. However, exchange ratios and valuation plans have not yet been announced, and whether the transaction is accretive to existing Tesla shareholders will depend on final pricing. In addition, SpaceX holds U.S. defense contracts, while Tesla is highly reliant on its manufacturing and sales ecosystem in China; therefore, the transaction could face U.S. national security scrutiny and bilateral regulatory reviews.

Tesla daily stock price chart, Source: TradingView

Looking at Tesla's daily stock chart, after previously forming an interim low near $300, the stock has staged a continuous rebound. Although it recently pulled back sharply from above $410 to around $340, it subsequently rebounded for five consecutive trading sessions to reclaim the $400 level, indicating a significant improvement in the short-term price structure.

Meanwhile, the stock has moved back above key moving averages, including the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 60-day, and 144-day lines, indicating that the short-term weak technical structure caused by the prior sharp decline has been noticeably repaired.

From the perspective of the Fibonacci retracement structure, the most critical level currently is $400, corresponding to the 0.5 retracement level of the prior $297.47–$499 rally. The latest closing price of $397.45 sits just below this level, making $398–$400 the core battleground for bulls and bears in the near term.

If the stock can decisively hold above $400, the initial upside focus will be on the recent high zone of $410–$414, followed by $422.13, which corresponds to the 0.618 Fibonacci level. A breakout above $422 would open up upside toward $450, representing more than 20% upside potential from the current price.

On the downside, initial support should be watched in the $385–$380 range, which sits near the strong confluence of multiple moving averages. If the stock falls below $380, it could test the $370–$375 range to the downside.