Strategy's Michel Saylor Says the Next Bitcoin Bull Market Has Already Started. Here's Why He's Right.

Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, says that the next Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) bull market is already underway. He argued that Bitcoin's bull run kicked off when its price bounced off its 200-week moving average after the coin hit its bear-market bottom in late June. He also credits bank lending against Bitcoin and the rising tokenization of assets, among other factors.

While I take issue with the first piece of evidence he used to back his point, as it's based solely on price action, I agree with Saylor's conclusion that the next bull run has most likely started. Here's why he's right.

Image source: Getty Images.

Profit takers now outnumber loss takers by 4 to 1

Saylor's metric, the 200-week moving average, averages approximately four years of weekly closing prices. Bitcoin's June 30 low of $58,525 closed 6.5% below that moving average, near where prior bear markets have bottomed.

It's an imperfect approach, though; the coin dropped 34.2% beneath the 200-week moving average in 2022. No law of nature says the coin needs to stop dipping once its price falls beneath a certain arbitrary moving average.

That's why I prefer to base my understanding of Bitcoin's market regime on other factors, such as which holders are capitulating (selling at steep losses) and which are buying.

At the June lows, coins sold at a loss outnumbered those sold at a profit by about 12 to 1, which is as bad as it tends to ever get in prior bear markets. Importantly, the balance between coins sold at a loss and coins sold at a profit flipped in late August; in every bull market since 2011, profit taking has outweighed loss taking. Holders selling at a profit now move about four coins for every one sold at a loss.

So by that test, Bitcoin has already crossed the line between bull and bear markets. What's more, longtime holders resumed net buying of Bitcoin in early July, another piece of evidence for a new bull run.

The next halving is approaching too

One factor absent from Saylor's argument (though he's doubtlessly aware of it) was the upcoming halving, which will cut the output of newly mined Bitcoin in half. The next halving will occur in early April 2028.

In the past, Bitcoin experienced significant pre-halving rallies that lasted 400 to 518 days, often gaining 100% or more. That puts the run-up's likely starting point sometime between early November 2026 and February 2027.

If that dynamic holds, and it probably will, it'll become increasingly clear over the coming weeks and months that the bull market has started.

Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.