SpaceX Stock Forecast: Q1 Guide Lifts SPCX Premarket, Can It Clear $154.36?

TradingKey - On Tuesday, SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares dropped by 0.11 percent, finishing at $147.79; they then increased by about 7 percent in the hours after the company released its Q3 report. This morning premarket quotes are staying at around $159.90 and the SPCX price is still above its initial $135 IPO level but is still well below the $225.64 high that was reached a short time after the stock was listed.

The stock was affected by the guidance even though it beat on every major line. SpaceX had forecasted first-quarter 2027 revenue at a level between $33 billion and $37 billion, which was more than double that of Q3, while at the same time guiding fourth-quarter capital expenditure to the range of $35 billion to $40 billion. Tesla will be reporting tonight, and questions regarding the merger will arise as a result of both companies' announcements.

Q3: First Profit as a Public Company

Revenue increased by 161% to $14.58 billion, compared with the expected figure of about $12.7 billion to $12.9 billion. The diluted EPS was $0.35, rather than the estimated $0.15, and net income amounted to $4.4 billion as opposed to a loss of $1.1 billion a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA rose by 306% to $8.8 billion.

The operating income was approximately $2.8 billion, which was less than the net income, meaning that the non-operating items contributed somewhat to the bottom line. Although the operating result is genuine, it is smaller than the overall profit suggests.

Super Intelligence Overtakes Starlink

The Super Intelligence division, which is SpaceX's AI business, brought in revenue of $7.56 billion, representing an increase of 830 per cent and exceeding the initial expectation of about $6.3 billion; it is now the company's largest segment. However, profits have not yet followed suit since the operating income was only $431 million, a figure affected by stock compensation linked to the Cursor acquisition.

Management anticipates that the amount of computing power will be divided about equally between use within the organisation and by external cloud customers. The portion relating to external customers is the one that should be kept an eye on since it is they, who are the paying cloud customers, that turn this kind of spending into recurring revenue.

Starlink Profit Nearly Doubles

Revenue from connectivity, primarily from Starlink, increased by 69% to reach $5.25 billion, while the segment's operating income rose by 99% to $2.4 billion. The number of consumer subscribers increased by 1.6 million to a total of 13.6 million, with the average revenue per user amounting to $69. Some of the improvement in margins was due to a one-off benefit of around 3 percentage points from tariff refunds, so the most recent margin should not be taken as the new base.

Capex Nearly Doubles in Q4

In the third quarter the capital expenditure was $19.6 billion, of which $16.4 billion was allocated to AI compute, and for the fourth quarter a guidance of $35 billion to $40 billion has been given, which is about double. The compute capacity was 1.7 gigawatts at the end of the quarter, with a target of 2.5 to 3 gigawatts by the end of the year, and Musk mentioned the addition of 10 gigawatts in 2027.

A revenue increase in the last quarter was offset by concerns regarding capital expenditure and free cash flow. This time around, however, the market ignored the near doubling of spending since the Q1 revenue guidance indicates that the money is already being turned into sales. Should that guidance be missed, the concern about capital expenditure is likely to return.

Backlog, Starship and the Merger

The backlog was $63 billion, approximately $42 billion of which was expected to be converted within a year, and SpaceX again stated its aim of achieving an annualized revenue run rate of $100 billion by the end of the year. Regarding Starship, Flight 14 reached orbit and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, and Flight 15, which is due next month, will attempt to recover both the booster and the spacecraft.

Musk has also stated that SpaceX and Tesla have established special committees made up of independent directors in order to assess a merger. Agreement on any terms has not yet been reached and the deal by no means is certain.

SpaceX Technical Analysis: Daily Close Above $154.36 Could Open $163.36

On the daily chart, SPCX has moved down from the early-October peak just short of $172.14 and has fallen below the upward trend line that was drawn from the August low of $105.90. Although intraday prices have dropped as low as $143, buyers have kept support at $146.83, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of that rally. A Fibonacci retracement indicates the portion of a rally that has been returned to the market, and a pullback that manages to hold the 38.2% level is still considered a minor one and generally leaves the main upward trend unbroken.

SpaceX Stock Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

The price remained just below the 50-day EMA at $150.36, with the RSI close to 45 and below its signal line. The RSI has now begun to level off well above the oversold level, meaning that the momentum has stopped declining but has not yet started to rise.

The premarket rise now has to maintain a daily closing price above $154.36; that would cause the price to rise above the broken trendline and thus allow it to reach $163.36, followed by $172.14. However, if the gain collapses and SPCX closes below $146.83, the 50% retracement level at $139.02 will reappear.

I'm cautiously bullish, but only if premarket strength carries into a daily close above $154.36.

Key Levels

Last close: $147.79, down 0.11% on October 20

Support: $146.83 to $146.86, $139.02, $131.20

Resistance: $150.36, $154.36, $163.36, $172.14, $190.16

RSI: 45.08, below its 54.89 signal line

Bullish trigger: Daily close above $154.36

Bearish trigger: Daily close below $146.83

FAQs

What causes the SpaceX stock price to be going up following the Q3 earnings?

SpaceX exceeded both its revenue and EPS estimates, with revenue in the third quarter rising by 161% to $14.58 billion. The main factor was the guidance, which called for revenue in the first quarter of 2027 to reach $33 billion to $37 billion, more than double that of the most recent quarter.

What does the forecast for SpaceX's stock appear to be following the earnings?

If SPCX closes above $154.36 the bias is cautiously bullish, with targets at $163.36 and $172.14; if it closes below $146.83 then the targets will be $139.02 and $131.20.

Bottom Line

It is the Q1 guide that causes investors to overlook the near doubling of Q4 capex, as it indicates that the spending on AI is already being turned into revenue. The current important condition is for the price to close above $154.36; in my opinion, maintaining that level puts us on the path back towards $163.36, whereas a close below $146.83 would cancel out the recovery that followed the earnings release.