Social Security's Trump Bump-Driven 2027 COLA Will Generate the Largest Raises for Retirees in These 10 States
Key Points
Social Security’s annual raise for 2027 clocked in at 3.6%, tying for the fifth-largest increase to monthly payouts since 1993.
Two of President Donald Trump’s policies are fueling this outsize increase in Social Security payouts.
Earnings history has led to noticeable differences in average retired-worker benefits by state.
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Few announcements are more anticipated by Social Security's nearly 55 million retired-worker beneficiaries than the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). Social Security's COLA represents the near-annual raise passed on to beneficiaries to offset the inflation (rising prices) they've faced over the last year.
Social Security's 2027 COLA, announced on Oct. 14, is among the largest over the last 35 years, thanks in part to President Donald Trump and elevated inflation, which has been fueled, in part, by his policies.
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President Trump's policies have fueled an outsize Social Security raise. Image source: Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead, courtesy of the National Archives.
For retired workers in 10 select states, the fifth-largest raise since 1993 will deliver outsize nominal-dollar increases to their monthly payouts.
A historic Trump bump will be reflected in monthly Social Security payouts come January
Inflation is a common occurrence when the U.S. economy is expanding. When the economy is growing, it's normal for businesses to have some degree of pricing power over their goods and services.
However, persistently elevated inflation lifted Social Security's 2027 COLA to 3.6%. It's the largest raise since 2023, and represents a tie for the fifth-largest COLA over the last 35 years.
Though the artificial intelligence infrastructure build-out has contributed to above-average inflation, 2027's historic COLA is primarily the result of a "Trump bump." Two of President Trump's policies -- tariffs and the Iran war -- have directly lifted consumer prices.
New from the New York Fed: "By February 2026, tariffs had contributed 2.9 pp to goods price inflation, and without them goods prices would have fallen slightly." About one quarter of every point in higher tariff rates shows up in consumer prices within one year. • A 10% across-the-board tariff yields a 2.6% rise in consumer goods prices after one year. • About two thirds of the increase comes from pricier imports, which get passed through quickly. • Another third comes from U.S. made goods, as producers face higher input costs and less import competition. This takes longer, about 6-12 months, to filter through.
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) October 6, 2026
According to a new report by three New York Federal Reserve economists writing for Liberty Street Economics ("How Fast Do Tariffs Pass Through into Consumer Prices"), it was estimated that Trump's tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to goods prices by February 2026.
Likewise, the Iran war has led to the largest energy supply disruption in modern history, sending fuel prices skyrocketing.
Image source: Getty Images.
Social Security's outsize raise in 2027 will be largest in these 10 states
But this historic Trump bump-driven COLA will be particularly noticeable in 10 states. Even though all traditional Social Security beneficiaries, including retired workers, will receive a 3.6% boost to their monthly payout come January 2027, the average increase per check can vary significantly by state.
Retired workers in the following 10 states were receiving the highest average monthly benefit as of December 2025 and should, therefore, enjoy the largest nominal-dollar boost to their payouts in 2027:
- Connecticut: $2,308.36 (December 2025) / $83.10 increase in 2027
- New Hampshire: $2,297.70 / $82.72
- New Jersey: $2,287.75 / $82.36
- Delaware: $2,273.77 / $81.86
- Maryland: $2,257.51 / $81.27
- Massachusetts: $2,220.49 / $79.94
- Washington: $2,199.17 / $79.17
- Minnesota: $2,191.44 / $78.89
- Utah: $2,168.28 / $78.06
- Virginia: $2,168.06 / $78.05
All retired-worker payouts are determined by the same four variables: work history, earnings history, full retirement age, and claiming age.
The differentiating factor that's primarily responsible for higher average monthly payouts in these 10 states is earnings history. Massachusetts, Washington, New Jersey, Maryland, Connecticut, and Virginia are all in the top 10 for average salary by state, with Minnesota and New Hampshire in the top 15. If workers are bringing home more per year in these states, the expectation is that they'll receive a higher benefit when they retire.
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