Prediction: Here's What a $5,000 Investment in Archer Aviation Will Be Worth in 3 Years

On the surface, Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) stock has been a disappointment this year. The eVTOL stock (electric vertical takeoff and landing) currently trades at about $5 a share, and has traded in the red for most of the year. It closed 2025 at about $7.50 a share; it has spent much of 2026 below $7.

But, honestly, what else should we have expectd? This is a company earning almost zero revenue last year; an aviation hopeful whose aircraft, Midnight, lacked -- and still lacks -- regulatory approval for commercial flights; and a high-flying, speculative stock whose valuation depended on faith, hope, and a whole lot of things going right.

Still, a lot could change in three years. And if Archer executes on its ambitions, I think this stock could gain more than 50% in that time span.

Image source: Archer Aviation.

What Archer could look like in three years

Archer Aviation is a pioneer in the nascent eVTOL industry. It, along with Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY), is trying to become the first U.S. company to offer air taxi services -- essentially a new mode of aerial transportation that would shuttle you through the air instead of on the ground. The vision for Archer is to transform the congested urban commute by replacing hour-long car rides with 10- to 20-minute zero-emission flights.

As mentioned above, Archer doesn't have the regulatory green light to offer air taxi services commercially. By 2029, however, I expect that Archer will have received FAA type certification and will have started commercial operations.

I don't think that's overly optimistic either. Thing is, Archer has completed three of the FAA's four certification phases and is now working through the final one. Meanwhile, its Midnight aircraft have been completing piloted test flights in California, including trips between cities. Add to that the federal government's enthusiastic push to bring eVTOLs to a major city near you, and I think Archer has a shot at getting Midnight certified in 36 months.

On top of that, Archer has opportunities now that could make it a formidable business in three years. Take, for instance, its defense plans. In August, Archer announced plans to acquire three Boeing subsidiaries, including Insitu, a profitable drone manufacturer generating more than $200 million in annual revenue.

That's right: Archer, who barely eked out $300,000 in 2025, could be generating not insignificant revenue soon. Assuming the deal closes, Archer could enter 2029 with a strong defense business alongside its passenger enterprise.

So how much could a $5,000 investment be worth?

Of course, revenue growth doesn't necessarily translate into stock growth. Dilution, for example, could eat into returns, even if Archer grows into a bigger business.

Indeed, given that Archer lost about $260 million in the second quarter alone, I wouldn't be surprised if the company needed to raise even more capital over the next three years. Toss in the additional shares Archer plans to issue for its Boeing acquisition, and dilution could become a major headwind.

Still, I think Archer has a good shot at hitting $8 a share by October 2029. That would imply 60% upside from here, turning $5,000 into $8,000. This assumes that Archer gets FAA type certification and expands its defense business, both of which, I think, will make it a much more valuable company than it is today.

That isn't, of course, a guarantee, and there are plenty of risks that could kill Archer's plans. Only go into Archer if you have an appetite for risk and can stomach the losses should the company fail to realize its ambitions.

Steven Porrello has positions in Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Boeing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.