Wednesday's Inflation Report Will Lock In Social Security's 2027 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA). Here's the Number to Watch.
Key Points
The next inflation report is coming out Wednesday, Oct. 14.
This inflation report is important for Social Security recipients because it helps determine the amount of the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA).
Two previous reports, averaged together with expert projections for the latest one, suggest the 2027 COLA will be 3.5%.
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The next Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is due to be released Wednesday, Oct. 14. This monthly report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is widely watched because it is an important indicator of the economy's pulse. The CPI is one of the main inflation indicators, and how it changes from month to month can drive stock market movements and adjustments in bond yields.
The October CPI report is also especially important for people who receive Social Security income. That's because the CPI plays an important role in determining how much Social Security payments change from year to year to account for a rising cost of living. The annual change is commonly referred to as the COLA, or Cost-of-Living Adjustment.
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Let's look at which CPI numbers are important for Social Security COLA and what it might mean for Social Security checks for you or your loved ones.
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What Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers matter for Social Security COLA?
Federal law generally says that the Social Security COLA for the next year is to be the average from monthly CPI reports for the third quarter of the year (July, August, and September). But this calculation doesn't include all CPI inflation data. Social Security COLA is based on a special portion of the inflation picture called the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). This is a targeted subset of inflation data that measures price changes for people who live in urban households and who work in wage-earning or clerical jobs. CPI-W covers the typical everyday consumer experience of about 30% of America's population.
Social Security uses this subset CPI-W inflation data for COLA because, back in 1973, when Congress passed the law to provide COLAs for Social Security, CPI-W was the only official consumer price index measurement taken. The more widely recognized Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), which most people see in the news each month as "CPI," didn't start being collected until 1978. Sometimes CPI-W comes in higher than overall inflation, which gives Social Security beneficiaries a bit of an extra income boost.
The 2026 BLS data shows the latest CPI-W increases were 3.4% in July and 3.5% in August. If tomorrow's inflation report aligns with the CPI-W numbers, the country is likely to see a 2027 Social Security COLA of about 3.5%.
How much is Social Security going up in 2027 with COLA?
Wednesday's report will provide the final piece of the calculation. Experts at public policy groups disagree somewhat on what that figure will be and have projected a range of COLA increases for 2027. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that Social Security's 2027 COLA will be 3.4%, while AARP projects a 2027 COLA of 3.6%.
As of August 2026, the average Social Security benefit for retired workers was about $2,088 per month. Assuming the 2027 COLA falls in the middle of forecasts at 3.5%, the average retired worker would receive a monthly benefit of $2,161 in 2027. That's an increase of $73.08 per month, or $876.96 per year.
Is the 2027 Social Security COLA big enough? Maybe not
Although Social Security COLA is intended to preserve the purchasing power of Social Security benefits against inflation, critics argue that CPI-W is an imperfect way to measure the inflationary costs faced by retirees. Many people face higher costs in retirement (healthcare is more expensive, for example) that are not fully accounted for by CPI-W data.
The annual COLA increase can be good news for Social Security beneficiaries. But it's also another reminder that there's no guarantee that Social Security will provide a comfortable standard of living. Social Security was never designed to be the only income of retirees. It's just a supplement to ensure some minimal level of income.
An extra $73 per month for retirees is better than nothing, but it might not keep up with rising prices of food, fuel, and other costs resulting from policy decisions by the government. To better keep up with the changes in today's economy, most people should keep investing in stocks as part of their long-term financial plans. A solid portfolio of equities should provide additional retirement income beyond what Social Security can provide.
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