How Much Bigger Will the 2027 Social Security COLA Be Than 2026's Raise? The Answer May Surprise You.

Earlier this year, Social Security benefits got a 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA. Historically speaking, that's not the smallest raise benefits have ever gotten -- not even close.

Still, a lot of retirees were disappointed with their 2.8% COLA. And given the way inflation has surged this year, they were clearly right to feel that way.

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The good news, though, is that the 2027 Social Security COLA is shaping up to be a lot bigger than 2026's. Here's how much benefits could increase in the new year.

What current 2027 Social Security COLA projections look like

The reason we don't yet have an official Social Security COLA for 2027 is that those raises are calculated based on changes to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) from July to September. Since we're still in the midst of September, it's clearly too soon to have a CPI-W reading for September, which is why it's also too soon to come up with a 2027 COLA.

But based on July and August's data, experts predict that the 2027 Social Security COLA will be 3.5% to 3.6%. Even if the final number is the lower one, that would still be a significant increase compared to this year's 2.8% boost.

The average monthly Social Security benefit as of this writing is about $2,086. So a 3.5% COLA could add $73 a month to the typical recipient's monthly check.

A larger COLA isn't totally good news

It's fair to say that most Social Security recipients would like a larger increase in the new year than a smaller one. But if you're on Social Security, you should know that a bigger COLA will come at a cost.

Since COLAs are linked to inflation, a more generous raise means higher price increases. There's no getting around that. A smaller COLA, by contrast, indicates that inflation isn't soaring as much.

Another thing to keep in mind is that if you're on Medicare, your Part B premiums get paid out of your Social Security checks automatically. If there's an increase in the cost of Part B in 2027, it could eat away at part of your upcoming COLA.

The Social Security Administration should be able to announce the 2027 COLA officially on Oct. 14. At that point, the final number could be a bit lower than 3.5% or even higher than 3.6%.

Either way, it's likely that next year's raise will surpass the 2026 COLA by a significant margin. Just don't expect a larger boost to improve your financial picture too much, since you might lose out in the form of higher costs and more expensive Medicare Part B premiums.

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