Prediction: This Will Be SpaceX’s Stock Price by June 2027 (Hint: It Implies a Big Move)

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX) stock is up 30% since August, but most Wall Street analysts still think it's undervalued. The median target price of $212 per share implies 48% upside from the current share price of $143. But investors have reason to be skeptical.

SpaceX recently completed the largest initial public offering (IPO) on record, and stocks that go public at large market values tend to perform poorly during the first year. That is especially plausible for SpaceX because it trades at an absurd valuation that makes it more expensive than every stock in the S&P 500.

For those reasons, I think SpaceX will decline 22% to $112 per share by June 2027.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

SpaceX has strong growth prospects tied to artificial intelligence

SpaceX dominates the space launch industry, with four times as many commercial launches as every other competitor combined in 2025. The foundation of that dominance is reusable rockets, which lower launch costs by letting the company spread manufacturing expenses across multiple missions.

Nicolas Owens at Morningstar writes, "The company's core strength is the ability to deliver payloads into orbit at unmatched scale, frequency, reliability, and cost efficiency." Indeed, that economic moat enabled its Starlink subsidiary to scale rapidly, and ultimately made it the largest satellite internet service in the world.

However, Starlink still has room to expand. In the second quarter, the company had 12 million subscribers, which represents less than 1% of the world's 2.1 billion internet-connected households. Additionally, SpaceX recently acquired 65 MHz of wireless spectrum from EchoStar, laying the foundation for a new mobile service slated to launch in late 2027.

Elsewhere, SpaceX entered the artificial intelligence market by merging with xAI earlier this year. The company rents compute capacity to customers, including Alphabet's Google and Anthropic, and develops proprietary models. In the future, SpaceX plans to offer AI cloud services from orbital (space-based) data centers, hoping to overcome the power and cooling constraints that limit terrestrial data centers.

SpaceX estimates its total addressable market at $28.5 trillion. The company attributes $2 trillion of that sum to its space and connectivity businesses, while the remaining $26.5 trillion comes from AI infrastructure and enterprise applications. That means SpaceX's ability to monetize AI services is the most important variable in determining its long-term growth trajectory.

History says SpaceX stock will trade at $112 per share by June 2027

SpaceX went public on June 12, 2026, at $135 per share. That gave the rocket and satellite company an initial market capitalization of $1.8 trillion, making it the largest U.S. initial public offering (IPO) on record. We can estimate SpaceX's stock price by June 2027 by examining how other large IPOs have performed during their first year on the market.

The chart below lists the top 10 U.S. IPO stocks (by market value at the IPO price) between 2016 and 2025. It also shows how those stocks performed during their first year.

Data source: BlackRock, YCharts. The chart above shows the first-year return of the 10 largest U.S. IPO stocks between 2016 and 2025.

As shown above, among the 10 largest U.S. IPOs between 2016 and 2025, the median stock dropped 17% during its first year on the public market. If SpaceX matches that pattern, the stock will trade at $112 per share by June 2027. That implies about 22% downside from its current share price of $143.

Of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future returns. But investors have good reason to be cautious with SpaceX. The stock currently trades at 91 times sales, which is an absurdly expensive valuation even for a company whose sales increased 92% in the last quarter. For context, Palantir Technologies is the most expensive stock in the S&P 500 at 67 times sales. SpaceX cannot maintain that substantial premium indefinitely.

Trevor Jennewine has positions in Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, BlackRock, and Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.