TradingKey Daily Market Briefing: CPI Data Boosts Rate Hike Expectations, Geopolitical Risks Spark Oil Price Surge

Tracking Market Trends

TradingKey - The three major U.S. stock indices rose across the board last Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.98%, the Nasdaq Composite Index gaining 0.96%, and the S&P 500 Index advancing 0.86%.

Large-cap tech stocks broadly advanced, with SpaceX (SPCX) and Amazon (AMZN) surging about 2%, Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) gaining over 1.7%, while Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), and Tesla (TSLA) rose around 0.5%.

International crude oil prices surged this morning, with WTI crude (USOIL) rising 2.6% to $100.94 per barrel, and Brent crude (UKOIL) gaining about 3% to $105.68 per barrel. Spot gold (XAUUSD) fell 0.17% to $4,340.490 per ounce, while spot silver (XAGUSD) dropped 0.41% to $64.128 per ounce.

Cryptocurrencies generally declined, with Bitcoin (BTC) falling 0.5% to $76,997.5; Ethereum (ETH) dropping 2.2% to trade at $2,484.05; Ripple (XRP) falling 1.53% to trade at $1.34; and Solana (SOL) declining 2% to $99.65.

Market News

U.S. August core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, beating expectations, and the probability of a Fed rate hike this week rose to nearly 90%. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that August CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, in line with expectations, while core CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year, hitting a five-and-a-half-year low. However, core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, the largest gain in four months and higher than the market estimate of 0.2%. Following the release of the data, interest rate swaps indicated that traders priced in an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September, up from 69% before the release, with the market fully pricing in two rate hikes before the end of the year. Institutional disagreements have subsequently emerged over whether September will bring an "insurance" rate hike or the start of a new rate-hiking cycle.

White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett stated that both Trump and he believe there is no reason to raise interest rates. Trump respects Warsh's independence 100%. It is important for the Fed to maintain the status quo before the election. We will 100% support any decision made by the Fed. The risk of artificial intelligence lies in malicious actors acquiring more advanced AI.

Oman announced the postponement of a regional meeting originally scheduled for the 14th. Omani Foreign Minister Badr posted on social media on the 13th that to seek consensus, the regional meeting originally scheduled to be held on the 14th in Salalah, a city in southern Oman, has been postponed. Badr said Oman will remain committed to promoting dialogue and providing support for regional stability and long-term cooperation. According to Qatar's Al Jazeera on the 12th, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated that Iran and Oman are expected to inform Gulf states of the outcome of their consultations on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz at the relevant regional meeting on the 14th.

The situation in Yemen has suddenly escalated! Houthi militants and Saudi Arabia launched mutual attacks, while Iran stated it is "not at war" with Saudi Arabia. Houthis have successively seized control of key chokepoints in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, and reciprocal strikes between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis have caused a sharp escalation in Yemen. The U.S. has refused direct military intervention, shifting toward diplomatic engagement and mediation. Iran claimed it has no intention of going to war with Saudi Arabia, but had previously stated it was difficult to restrain the Houthis, causing strategic geopolitical risks in the Red Sea to surge. Currently, global energy trade faces a daunting situation of a de facto double chokepoint—the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated that OpenAI will not go public this year, adding that if AI threatens human survival, he would rather abort the IPO. Altman noted that the company has ruled out plans for a 2026 listing. Facing a 10% risk of technological extinction in the future, it is necessary to avoid blindly pursuing capital gains, and the company is coordinating with competitors like Anthropic to slow down the pace of development. Despite growing calls for industry regulation and ongoing market volatility, Anthropic still plans to push forward with a massive IPO in the autumn.

On September 11, Reuters reported that Anthropic is in talks with Nvidia, seeking to bring the chip giant into its IPO as a cornerstone investor. Nvidia is considering investing up to $10 billion in Anthropic's IPO. Cornerstone investors are typically institutional investors who commit to subscribing to a specific share of stock prior to the public offering, providing an early endorsement for the listing.

Top 10 Most Active Stocks

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