【US Pre-Market】US Treasury Yields Top 5% as Stock Futures and Crypto Stocks Drop; ASML Gains Over 3%

TradingKey - On Tuesday (September 15) Eastern Time, futures on the three major U.S. stock indexes fell across the board in pre-market trading. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield broke above 5%, reaching its highest level since 2007. Rising oil prices, expanding government debt, and funding demand for AI infrastructure jointly rattled global bond markets, noticeably cooling investor risk appetite.

As of press time, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.16%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.19%, and Dow 30 futures fell 0.25%.

Source: Investing

In commodities, gold (XAUUSD) fell below $4,300/oz, while silver (XAGUSD) traded near $63/oz. Rising global government bond yields increased the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, and the continued strengthening of the U.S. dollar index further pressured gold and silver prices.

International oil prices extended their rally, with WTI (USOIL) crude rising to $104/barrel at one point, while Brent crude (UKOIL) hovered near $108/barrel. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline remains shut down after an attack. The pipeline previously transported about 4 million barrels of crude oil per day to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea coast, accounting for roughly 4% of global oil supply. Meanwhile, Yemen's Houthi rebels launched a new round of attacks on Saudi Arabia on Monday, further escalating market concerns over Middle East crude supply disruptions.

In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hovered near $77,000. Rising U.S. Treasury yields and mounting expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes continued to weigh on market sentiment for crypto assets.

Market Moves

Crypto concept stocks generally fell in pre-market trading. Coinbase (COIN) and MicroStrategy (MSTR) fell over 4%, Bit Digital (BTBT), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and MARA Holdings (MARA) dropped over 2%, while Hut 8 (HUT) and CleanSpark (CLSK) slipped over 1%. The market is awaiting a procedural vote in the U.S. Senate on the CLARITY Act.

Moleculin Biotech (MBRX) rose about 6% in pre-market trading. The company announced that it will present new data on Annamycin at three scientific conferences, covering drug tissue distribution, mechanism of action, and anti-tumor activity in pancreatic cancer, with the market expecting the research to bring new clinical data or partnership opportunities.

Dave & Buster's (PLAY) fell over 14% in pre-market trading. The company's Q2 revenue fell 2.4% year-over-year to $544.1 million, missing market expectations of $556.8 million; adjusted loss per share was $0.27, compared with market expectations of $0.19 earnings per share.

The company's adjusted EBITDA dropped to $98.9 million from $129.8 million in the same period last year. Weakness in entertainment sales, combined with rising costs for food and beverage, labor, and new store openings, significantly squeezed profits, reflecting that consumers are cutting back on discretionary spending such as dining out and entertainment.

CoreWeave (CRWV) fell further by about 1% in pre-market trading. Bernstein believes that if the training pace of frontier AI models slows down, data center developers and emerging cloud providers could take a hit, with CoreWeave potentially being one of the most exposed companies.

Mobilicom (MOB) rose about 5.6% in pre-market trading. The company received a follow-on volume production order for ground control stations from a Tier-1 Asian robotics customer. The customer primarily manufactures robotic platforms for military and industrial markets, and this repeat purchase indicates that Mobilicom's communications and cybersecurity products have moved from technical validation to commercial deployment at scale.

ASML (ASML) rose over 3% in pre-market trading. According to JPMorgan analysts, ASML is evaluating plans to produce over 110 EUV lithography systems in 2028. Most of the company's new orders are already scheduled through 2028, reflecting that demand for AI chipmaking equipment remains robust.

ASML's capacity for Low-NA EUV equipment in 2026 is approximately 65 units, with plans to increase capacity by about 30% in both 2027 and 2028. Currently, the main constraint on capacity expansion is assembly speed rather than the supply chain.

Market News

The sell-off in global bond markets deepened further. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5%, reaching its highest level since 2007, while the 30-year yield rose past 5.4%, setting a new high since 2004.

Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose to 3%, its highest level since 1996, while the UK's 10-year gilt yield surpassed 5.4%, reaching a new high since 2007. Long-term sovereign bond yields in France and Germany also climbed to highs not seen in more than a decade or even two decades.

The probability of a Fed rate hike in September rose to 92%. Influenced by recent elevated inflation data and international oil prices surging past $100, interest rate futures show that the market expects a more than 90% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at this meeting.

Trump and Jensen Huang oppose slowing down AI development. After Dario Amodei, Sam Altman, and Elon Musk successively voiced support for slowing frontier model development, Donald Trump publicly expressed opposition, emphasizing that the U.S. cannot lose its leadership position in the field of AI.

At the All-In Summit held in Los Angeles, Trump called Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, criticizing certain AI alarmist views and comparing data centers to the oil of the next two to three decades. Huang supported continuing to advance AI development, believing that model safety and technological progress can be balanced.

Musk suggests AI companies cross-test models. At the All-In Summit, Elon Musk proposed that major AI companies should conduct safety tests on each other's models prior to release, allowing competitors to search for potential vulnerabilities from different perspectives to avoid companies designing their own tests and evaluating the results themselves.

Key Data/Events Preview

At 8:15 a.m. ET, the U.S. released the ADP weekly employment change data, with the prior reading showing an increase of 12,000.

At 8:30 a.m. ET, the U.S. released the September Empire State Manufacturing Index.