SpaceX Q2 2026: Starlink 12M Subs, $100B Revenue Run Rate, Stock Surges to $133 on Terafab and Argus Upgrade

TradingKey -SpaceX's Q2 2026 earnings, reported on August 4, showcased their remarkable growth, boasting a 92% year-on-year revenue increase to $7.814 billion, and a 191% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $3.538 billion. Starlink reached a milestone 12 million subscribers adding 1.7 million net new subscribers in just one quarter. Starlink was projected to reach $100 billion by the end of 2026. On August 5, the stock fell 14% as many investors focused on the large $18.4 billion AI related capital expenditures, but the sentiment changed dramatically from August 6 to August 7.

The first major lockup expiration was in effect. 911.5 million (approximately $100 billion) shares were released. Argus Research Firm improved the rating on SpaceX to Buy with a price target of $160. In addition, the $16.8 billion joint Terafab semiconductor project between Texas Tesla and SpaceX was also news. The stock price closed at $133.11 pushing the stock price to an approximate 15.8% increase on the day, and just $2.89 from the $135 IPO price. The concern for Sunday readers is well grounded. Will the momentum of the stock price increase remain, or will it fall due to technical resistance?

The Fundamentals Tell Three Very Different Stories

SpaceX is, in actuality, three different businesses, with each one emerging at its own pace, and each one having varying degrees of profitability and distinct capital needs. Starlink, the connectivity business, is the main cash flow driver. Starlink is first among cash flows, bringing in $4.291 billion, a 66 percent year over year and a 32 percent quarter over quarter increase, with $1.656 billion in operating income. Starlink ended the quarter with 12 million subscribers, a doubling of last year’s 6 million, and a record quarterly increase of 1.7 million net customers.

Revenue for the Enterprise and Government Connectivity segment grew more than 100 percent year over year, reaching $1.8 billion, thanks to connectivity deals with airlines and more than $6 billion in multiple year contracts with the U.S. Government for Starshield. There are approximately 10,200 satellites in the constellation, now providing coverage in 167 different regions. Average revenue per user (ARPU) has declined to $66 a month, from $85 a year prior. However, ARPU is stable, as higher demand outpaces pricing declines due to international expansion and additional lower tier pricing.

The AI Segment Drives Growth—and Spending

SpaceX’s AI segment reported $2.561 billion in annual revenue, which represents a 247% increase, with a $1.257 billion operating loss. It made up most of the $18.4 billion quarterly capital expenditure at $15.8 billion. Positive Adjusted EBITDA was approximately $1.15 billion. Management anticipated compute would expand from 1.4 gigawatts to 2 gigawatts by the end of December 2026. SpaceX signed cloud service contracts worth $14.1 billion this quarter and another $6.7 billion in the early part of Q3. AI infrastructure investments are reported by CFO Bret Johnsen, to be earned back in less than one year. If this is sustained, it would allow the program to continue and would provide significant value to the backlog.

The Space Segment Remains Expensive

Revenue in the space segment grew by 29% to $962 million, though the segment posted an operating loss of $542 million mostly due to the $1.1 billion for Starship R&D. SpaceX had 38 successful launches and delivered 485 metric tons to orbit. Starship Flight 13 carried out the first successful intact upper-stage splashdown and the first successful in-space Raptor engine relight, and also carried 20 Starlink V3 satellites. Flight 14 will most likely have an operational booster tower catch to the orbital launch. Funding for the Starship program will likely remain financed by the income generated by the other SpaceX programs, though further progress in the program will also be more likely with these advances.

Why the Stock Rebounded

On August 5, shares dropped due to investor focus on the negative adjusted free cash flow and the $18.4 billion capital expenditure bill. Investors began to feel more positive on August 6 after the expected heavy post-IPO lockup selling did not occur. Heavy insider selling was expected with about 911.5 million shares becoming eligible for sale, but the stock increased 6% on an unusually high trading volume of 255 million shares.

The day after the lock-up, the price target for SpaceX stock was raised to $160, and SpaceX stock was upgraded to buy. Additionally, the recovery occurred after the SpaceX and Tesla joint venture of a $16.8 billion semiconductor fabrication facility to be located in Texas. The Texas facility will manufacture semiconductors and target the future needs of autonomous vehicles and space-based data centers.

SpaceX Price Analysis; The Technical Chart Shows Strong Recovery

The descending multi-week price channel that continued to drive the price of SpaceX lower has experienced a change in trend direction to positive, as SpaceX price broke the upper descending multi-week price channel, and has converted the structure from bearish to a possible bullish reversal. 

SpaceX price rallied from the $105-$110 price range (where the support level was observed) and has since reached a price level of $133.11. The 50-day and 100-day moving averages are $119.30 and $129.47 respectively, and SpaceX is trading above both. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) has increased to the $69.5 level, which is close the overbought zone. 

SpaceX Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

In this case, the upward movement of price levels of 27% in a matter of 2 days, warrants a price consolidation. Resistance levels are found at $134.38 (which is close to the IPO price of $135). If the bullish breakout continues, the next resistance targets are $143.37 and $153.68. New support has been established at the $129.47 - $126.17 (trading below the moving averages). The breakout structure has been confirmed as price remains above $126.17.

Key Levels

• Resistance:  $134.38 (near IPO price), $143.37, $153.68
• Support:  $129.47 (100 EMA), $126.17, $119.30 (50 EMA)
• Current price:  $133.11 (near IPO price $135)
• RSI:  69.5 (strong but approaching overbought)
• Channel breakout:  Above upper resistance; former bearish structure now bullish

Why did SpaceX stock surge from $114 to $133 in two days?

The August 6 lockup’s no crash absorption meant demand was strong. SpaceX was also rated as a Buy by Argus on August 7 due to strong AI payback. The announcement of Tesla/Terafab confirmed the capex thesis. All of these combined inverted the narrative of 'capex too high' to 'capex high, but justified.' Technicals were also in play, as the descending breakout channel was just that, broken.

Is SpaceX stock a buy at $133?

This is conviction dependent, on the three-segment thesis and AI profitability timeline. Starlink boasts current profitability, and 50% positive monthly subscriber growth. AI is also currently cash-flow negative and claims <1-year payback on infrastructure and has a $20B+ contracted backlog. The price of $133 is close to the $135 IPO price, and at this price, the company has fully covered all execution risks. Recent news, and the technical breakout support traders at this price level. 

Further breakdown past support at $126.17 would render the breakout null. For short-substance traders the momentum is there. For long-term traders, Starlink fundamentals and the backlog support a long hold position. This is not investment advice.

The Bottom Line

For SpaceX, Q2 2026 was a great quarter. Facts show 92% total revenue growth, 191% growth in EBITDA, driven by Starlink's 12 million subscribers, over 20 billion dollar AI cloud contracts, and the progressing development of Starship and its developmental orbital reusability. The negative sentiment driven by the $18.4 billion capex was relieved by the Argus upgrade, absorbed lockups and, the Terafab revisions went from 'It's unsustainable' to 'It's justified' (or along the lines). SpaceX also broke the descending channel. The stock, as of now, is valued near the price of the IPO and present buyers are in the driver's seat.

The stock’s next level of resistance at $134.38 and target range of $143 to $153 will depend on the market’s belief in the payback metrics for AI, and in Starlink’s potential growth. The next event to move the stock is additional lockup expirations in the next few weeks, and updates on Flight 14 and the ramp of AI customers. The setup is bullish, but confirmation of this trade will come from a bounce off channel support at $126.17.