Social Security Benefits Have Lost 14% of Their Buying Power Since 2016. Will the 2027 COLA Reverse That Trend?
Key Points
Social Security's buying power is declining in part because of how the government calculates COLAs.
The 2027 Social Security COLA is expected to be above average.
It still might not be enough to cover all your increased costs next year.
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If you used to manage all right with just your Social Security checks and personal savings and now find yourself struggling, it's not all in your head. Social Security checks actually don't go as far as they used to. Recent research from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) reveals that they buy 14% less today than they did 10 years ago.
Many hope that the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) might turn things around, but we don't know yet. But it might not change as much as you expect.
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What to expect from the 2027 Social Security COLA
The good news is that an above-average 2027 COLA is likely. Recent estimates suggest it will be around 3.8%, a full percentage point higher than the 2026 COLA and above average over the last 50 years.
But this amounts to only about a $79 boost for seniors claiming the $2,084 average monthly retirement benefit as of June 2026. It's possible this may not cover the rising costs you've faced so far this year.
This is largely due to how the government calculates COLAs. It bases them on changes in average third-quarter inflation data as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). This index tracks expenses that a typical urban worker might face, and therein lies the main reason Social Security benefits have continued to lose buying power over time.
Seniors' spending habits often look quite different from those of workers. For example, retirees often spend more on healthcare, and these costs tend to rise faster than those for other categories of goods. So, seniors may find their cost of living rises faster than the CPI-W would suggest.
A separate index, the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E), better tracks seniors' spending, and many want the government to use it to calculate COLAs in the future to avoid further erosion of buying power. But there's no plan to make that switch right now.
What to do if the 2027 Social Security COLA isn't enough
We'll find out the official 2027 Social Security COLA on Oct. 14. Once we know that, you can estimate how much your checks will grow next year. Then begin planning how you'll cover your remaining expenses in 2027.
You may need to rely more on personal savings or see if you qualify for other government benefits. If you're still able to work, a part-time job could help, too. The right strategy is the one that's sustainable for you over the long term.
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